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You are not telling the truth.
Per reports, agents gave contradictory commands. Some told her to leave. Others demanded she exit the vehicle.
As per the actual events, documented in multiple videos from multiple angles, Good was not given contradictory commands. She was instructed to "Get out of the (fucking) car" three times in a row.
That doesn't mean that ICE is right. That doesn't mean the shooting was acceptable. It means that what you said was untrue.
Were there "reports" of the incorrect narrative you describe? Yes. Does that matter, now that we know that's not true? No.
Saying "per reports" doesn't absolve you from a responsibility to accurately report what actually happened, and suggests you're trying to lean on that ambiguity deliberately.
Unless I've misunderstood, this post is severely misleading, starting with:
seven specific forecasts from November 2024 that we can score right now against what actually happened
... but you don't have "seven specific forecasts from November 2024". You've retroactively constructed 7 descriptions of possible events. Those aren't "forecasts", and they're certainly not "from November 2024". They're absolutely not "specific, falsifiable predictions" (emphasis mine) -- it's impossible to falsify a "prediction" that was tailored to suit your observations after you made them.
(Also, where are those probabilities coming from?)
You basically acknowledge once (in the subheader) that you didn't actually make these predictions. After that point (and before), you treat them as real predictions. "This was testable"... (read more)
Yes, it would change my view; it's an important point, though not the sole one.
25Hour's description of the incident with Good is strategically misleading in multiple ways. I picked this specific point because it was the most unambiguously false. In the counterfactual world where it was true, it wouldn't fix the other points, but it would (and should) shift how I think about the incident.
I think this is a bit too charitable. First, we have multiple videos, and the audio from Ross's video is pretty comprehensive and clear.
Second, if we're speculating, isn't it possible that Good herself... (read more)