Vaniver

Political power grows out of the barrel of a gun -- Mao Zedong Halfway thru recorded history, Athens became the first state we're sure was a democracy, and inspiration to many later ones. Probably some existed earlier, and certainly some entities smaller than states were democratic, likely long before recorded...

The future is going to be different from the present. Let's think about how. Specifically, our expectations about what's reasonable are downstream of our past experiences, and those experiences were downstream of our options (and the options other people in our society had). As those options change, so too our...

> Eliezer Yudkowsky and Nate Soares have written a new book. Should we take it seriously? > > I am not the most qualified person to answer this question. If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies was not written for me. It’s addressed to the sane and happy majority who haven’t...

Many thanks to Brandon Goldman, David Langer, Samuel Härgestam, Eric Ho, Diogo de Lucena, and Marc Carauleanu, for their support and feedback throughout. Most alignment researchers we sampled in our recent survey think we are currently not on track to succeed with alignment–meaning that humanity may well be on track...

Vaniver I'm going to expand on something brought up in this comment. I wrote: > A lot of my thinking over the last few months has shifted from "how do we get some sort of AI pause in place?" to "how do we win the peace?". That is, you could...

This idea is half-baked; it has some nice properties but doesn't seem to me like a solution to the problem I most care about. I'm publishing it because maybe it points someone else towards a full solution, or solves a problem they care about, and out of a general sense...

Announcement, Policy v1.0, evhub's argument in favor on LW. These are my personal thoughts; in the interest of full disclosure, one of my housemates and several of my friends work at Anthropic; my spouse and I hold OpenAI units (but are financially secure without them). This post has three main...