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Or explain why the NYT does use the chosen name of other people, like musicians' stage names. 

Brand new account, reposting old arguments? Not suspicious at all. 

Stoyan and Chiu (2024)

"Just because the market was the epicenter doesn't mean the pandemic started there," while technically true, is fairly meaningless. If the center were at the lab every lab leak proponent would be shouting at the top of their lungs this conclusively proves the lab leak theory. Debating one particular statistical analysis doesn't disprove the very elementary technique of "look at the data, it's obvious" aka

The multiple spillover theory might be wrong. But then again, so might all of the analyses that Roko cited in his initial post, including the paper about genetic engineering, the Richard Ebright tweet, the RTK estimates, etc. The point of that part was to show that it's very easy to generate high Bayes factors if you highball favorable pieces of information, ignore unfavorable ones, make convenient assumptions, and multiply numbers together.

This analysis is obviously heavily biased. No Bayes factor at all for the cases being at the market? Again, no LL supporter would seriously say the BF would be one if the cases were clustered near the WIV. This is the exact same sort of highly motivated reasoning that Rootclaim applied, and neither of the judges bought it, for the same reason. The CGG analysis is just wrong, etc.  

They're not equally unlikely. You haven't provided any actual evidence for this claim. 

Also, why on Earth would we just take the ratio of distances or areas as the probability factor? That's not how pandemics work. 

ICUs were overwhelmed because Covid spread so much. Its hospitalization rate is a few percent and its fatality rate is 1% or so. This is in contrast to diseases like SARS 1 (9.5% fatality rate) or MERS (34% fatality rate). Sure, it's not mild compared to seasonal flu, but it is much more mild than the obvious things you would compare it to.  

The second thing would be surprising as if the virus can so often jump to humans from animals it will happen closer to its origin in Laos.

Spillover events probably did happen elsewhere, but not all spillover events lead to a pandemic, and covid is usually so mild that it's not surprising we can't find any such cases. (I also don't know if some final important mutation didn't happen until much closer to the actual pandemic start). 

Alternative explanation is following: as the market is one of the most crowded place in the city

This is discussed in the Rootclaim debate. There are many different types of places which served as superspreader events early on, the evidence we have shows the growth rate in the market as the same outside of it, and overall growth didn't seem to slow down when they closed the market. 

If we assume that a worker of  WIH was infected at work, this will be completely unspectacular until he started infecting other people. Such person can commute all around the city including to CDC near wet market.

This is also addressed. It would be a fantastic coincidence--much stronger than the one you posited at the start of this thread--if the only place they brought the disease was one of only a handful of other places in the city that a pandemic could actually start. Like, if all the early cases clustered around the WIV, and I said that a HSM worker could have brought it to the lab, would anyone take that seriously? 

This, by the way, is exactly the kind of thing that annoys me and which is one of the main issues I made this thread to address. If you make enough favorable assumptions, you can make any hypothesis look good. This is clearly not the best explanation for the available evidence. Merely because you have successfully epicycled your way into a version of the theory which is not obviously impossible doesn't mean anyone has any reason to think it is even remotely likely. Your arguments aren't even consistent, as you seem surprised that there were no spillovers between Wuhan and Laos, but then don't seem at all skeptical of the idea that a sick person would commute all over the city and only bring it to 1 place. 

I mean, I could point out that the first non-Wuhan case was in Beijing on December 17th (I think, going off memory here) and that someone could have gotten sick in a different city, and then just hopped on a train and immediately went to the HSM, and the WIV isn't relevant at all. Is this story convincing? Is there any evidence to support it? Does it feel like I am engaging in truth-seeking, or just throwing shit at a wall and seeing what sticks so I can prop up my pet theory? 

What would the disjunctive fallacy be? Failing to account for the fact that P(A or B) >= P(A) and P(B)?

At one point Miller gave a likelihood against LL by a factor of 1e20 or 1e25, I think during the second debate, on genetic evidence. I don't think he intended this number to be an actual Bayes factor, but rather to show how easy it is to get a big BF by multiplying many small numbers together (see also 

I would like to see what Roko has to say about my post, so now I'm very curious how this works. Is this saying that you get rate-limited if you have at least 7 people downvoting you in the past 20 comments, regardless of how many people upvote you or how many times those 7 people vote? Also, does this count both overall and agreement karma? 

What facility? WIV and HSM are at least 6 miles apart as the crow flies, with a big river between that forces anyone traveling from one to the other to go even further than that. 

To override this we need some mental equlibristics (I think of meme here but I don't want to be rude)

No, you just need stronger evidence. 1/20 isn't that strong, especially for a complex situation with a high number of possible parameters to check.  

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