This is the supposedly-bimonthly-but-we-keep-skipping 'What are you working On?' thread. Previous threads are here. So here's the question: What are you working on? Here are some guidelines: * Focus on projects that you have recently made progress on, not projects that you're thinking about doing but haven't started. * Why...
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post, even in Discussion, it goes here.
http://blog.regehr.org/archives/546 John Regehr, an associate professor of computer science at the University of Utah, writes about two algorithmic optimizations for Conway's Game of Life, and speculates on the implications for self-aware entities in simulations. > Hashlife is a clever optimization that treats the Life grid as a hierarchy of quadtrees....
Why is downvoting disabled, for how long has it been like this, and when will it be back?
In support of your point, MIRI itself changed (in the opposite direction) from its former stance on AI research.
You've been around long enough to know this, but for others: The former ambition of MIRI in the early 2000s—back when it was called the SIAI—was to create artificial superintelligence, but that ambition changed to ensuring AI friendliness after considering the "terrible consequences [now] feared by the likes of MIRI".
In the words of Zack_M_Davis 6 years ago:
... (read more)(Disclaimer: I don't speak for SingInst, nor am I presently affiliated with them.)
But recall that the old name was "Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence," chosen before the inherent dangers of AI were understood. The unambiguous for is no
- who on lesswrong tracks their predictions outside of predictionbook, and their thoughts on that method
Just adding to the other responses: I also use Metaculus and like it a lot. In another thread, I posted a rough note about its community's calibration.
Compared to PredictionBook, the major limitation of Metaculus is that users cannot create and predict on arbitrary questions, because questions are curated. This is an inherent limitation/feature for a website like Metaculus because they want the community to focus on a set of questions of general interest. In Metaculus's case, 'general interest' translates mostly to 'science and technology'; for questions on politics, I suggest taking a look at GJ Open instead.
Here is the full text article that was actually published by Kahneman et al. (2011) in Harvard Business Review, and here is the figure that was in HBR:
Is there any information on how well-calibrated the community predictions are on Metaculus?
Great question! Yes. There was a post on the official Metaculus blog that addressed this, though this was back in Oct 2016. In the past, they've also sent to subscribed users a few emails that looked at community calibration.
I've actually done my own analysis on this around two months ago, in private communication. Let me just copy two of the plots I created and what I said there. You might want to ignore the plots and details, and just skip to the "brief summary" at the end.
(Questions on Metaculus go through an 'open' phase then a 'closed' phase; predictions can... (read 703 more words →)
That's some neat data and observation! Could there be other substantial moderating differences between the days when you generate ~900 kJ and the days when you don't? (E.g., does your mental state before you ride affect how much energy you generate? This could suggest a different causal relationship.) If there are, maybe some of these effects can be removed if you independently randomize the energy you generate each time you ride, so that you don't get to choose how much you ride.
To make this a single-blinded experiment, just wear a blindfold; to double blind, add a high-beam lamp to your bike; and to triple blind, equip and direct high beams both front and rear.
… okay, there will be no blinding.
Polled.
I generally do only a quick skim of post titles and open threads (edit: maybe twice a month on average; I'll try visiting more often). I used to check LW compulsively prior to 2013, but now I think both LW and I have changed a lot and diverged from each other. No hard feelings, though.
I rarely click link posts on LW. I seldom find them interesting, but I don't mind them as long as other LWers like them.
I mostly check LW through a desktop browser. Back in 2011–2012, I used Wei Dai's "Power Reader" script to read all comments. I also used to rely on Dbaupp's "scroll to new comments" script after
I haven't been around for a while, but I expect to start fulfilling the backlog of requests after Christmas. Sorry for the long wait.
Do we know which country Wright was living in during 2010?
This is the supposedly-bimonthly-but-we-keep-skipping 'What are you working On?' thread. Previous threads are here. So here's the question:
What are you working on?
Here are some guidelines:
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post, even in Discussion, it goes here.
http://blog.regehr.org/archives/546
John Regehr, an associate professor of computer science at the University of Utah, writes about two algorithmic optimizations for Conway's Game of Life, and speculates on the implications for self-aware entities in simulations.
... (read more)Hashlife is a clever optimization that treats the Life grid as a hierarchy of quadtrees. By observing that the maximum speed of signal propagation in a Life configuration is one cell per step, it becomes possible to evolve squares of the Life grid multiple steps into the future using hash codes. Hashlife is amazing to watch: it starts out slow but as the hashtable fills up, it suddenly “explodes” into exponential progress. I recommend Golly. Hashlife is one of my
Thanks for writing such a comprehensive explanation!