Wikipedia usage survey results

The great decline in Wikipedia pageviews (condensed version)

Tentative tips for people engaged in an exercise that involves some form of prediction or forecasting

Claim: Scenario planning is preferable to quantitative forecasting for understanding and coping with AI progress

[QUESTION]: Looking for insights from machine learning that helped improve state-of-the-art human thinking

[QUESTION]: Academic social science and machine learning

How deferential should we be to the forecasts of subject matter experts?

Scenario analyses for technological progress for the next decade

Communicating forecast uncertainty