Timeline of AI safety

We cover a larger period in the overall summary and full timeline. The summary by year starts 2013 because (it appears that) that's around the time that enough started happening per year. Though we might expand it a little further to the past as we continue to expand the timeline.

<describe lockdowns as social engineering>

Did you intend to expand this?

<Michael Mina stuff here>

Did you intend to expand this?

Coronavirus: California case growth

I did some rewording of the post that made it a little more wordy, but fingers crossed that that part has now become less confusing.

Coronavirus: California case growth

Thank you for the feedback (and also for discussing this at length which gave me better understanding of the nuances). I modified to a more clumsy but hopefully a more what-you-see-is-what-I-mean term:

Coronavirus: California case growth

Thank you for the feedback. I agree with Lukas Gloor's reply below that the choice of term is confusing as it differs from what people may intuitively think "true cases" means. I also agree with his remark that setting terminology that is consistent with reality isn't bad in and of itself.

I have therefore changed "true cases" to "true currently-or-eventually-symptomatic cases". I think that provides the level of precision needed for our purposes. I haven't found a better term after some searching (though not a lot); however, I'm happy to change to a more concise and medically accepted term if I get to learn of one.

Coronavirus: California case growth

What I wrote there was assuming that the number of new true cases drops to a fairly low level. Whether that happens now or a week or two or three later is unclear; if the 2 -> 3 backlog is growing. then resolving that backlog will add more delay.

I posited us already being at this point as the "optimistic" scenario.

I'll reword the post to clarify this.

Introducing A New Open-Source Prediction Registry

Directly visiting gives an ERR_NAME_NOT_RESOLVED. Can you make it so that redirects to

The why and how of daily updates

That's a normal part of life :). Any things that I decide to do in a future day, I'll copy/paste to over there, but I usually won't delete the items from the checklist for the day where I didn't complete them (thereby creating a record of things I expected or hoped to do, but didn't).

For instance, at I have two undone items.

Raemon's Shortform

There is some related stuff by Carl Shulman here: that largely agrees with what I said.

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