This ended up being my highest-karma post, which I wasn't expecting, especially as it hasn't been promoted out of "personal blog" and therefore isn't as visible as many of my other posts. (To be fair "The Nature of Offense" would probably have a higher karma if it was posted today, as each vote only had one point back then.) Curious what people liked about it, or upvoted it for.
There's a time-sensitive trading opportunity (probably lasting a few days), i.e., to short HTZ because it's experiencing an irrational spike in prices. See https://seekingalpha.com/article/4379637-over-1-billion-hertz-shares-traded-on-friday-because-of-bankruptcy-court-filings for details. Please only do this if you know what you're doing though, for example you understand that HTZ could spike up even more and the consequences of that if it were to happen and how to hedge against it. Also I'm not an investment advisor and this is not investment advice.
Lessons I draw from this history:
Speaking of parents obsessed with getting their kids into an elite university, here's an amazing exposé about a corner of that world that I had little idea existed: The Mad, Mad World of Niche Sports Among Ivy League–Obsessed Parents, Where the desperation of late-stage meritocracy is so strong, you can smell it
Another detail: My grandmother planed to join the Communist Revolution together with two of her classmates, who made it farther than she did. One made it all the way to Communist controlled territory (Yan'an) and later became a high official in the new government. She ended up going to prison in one of the subsequent political movements. Another one almost made it before being stopped by Nationalist authorities, who forced her to write a confession and repentance before releasing her back to her family. That ended up being dug up during the Cultural Revolution and got her branded as a traitor to Communism.
Upvoted for the important consideration, but your own brain is a source of errors for which it's hard to decorrelate, so is it really worse (or worse enough to justify the additional costs of the alternative) to just trust Zvi instead of your own judgement/integration of diverse sources?
ETA: Oh, I do read the comments here so that helps to catch Zvi's errors, if any.
My grandparents on both sides of my family seriously considered leaving China (to the point of making concrete preparations), but didn't because things didn't seem that bad, until it was finally too late.
Writing a detailed post is too costly and risky for me right now. One of my grandparents was confined in a makeshift prison for ten years during the Cultural Revolution and died shortly after, for something that would normally be considered totally innocent that he did years earlier. None of them saw that coming, so I'm going to play it on the safe side and try to avoid saying things that could be used to "cancel" me or worse. But there are plenty of articles on the Internet you can find by doing some searches. If none of them convinces you how serious the problem is, PM me and I'll send you some links.
Here is his newsletter archive and subscribe link if anyone wants to check it out.
There's a number of ways to interpret my question, and I kind of mean all of them:
By "either an instrumental or terminal sense" I mean is "joining the elite" (or should it be) an terminal value or just a instrumental value? If it's just an instrumental value, is "joining the elite" actually a good way to achieve people's terminal values?