Wei_Dai

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A tale from Communist China

This ended up being my highest-karma post, which I wasn't expecting, especially as it hasn't been promoted out of "personal blog" and therefore isn't as visible as many of my other posts. (To be fair "The Nature of Offense" would probably have a higher karma if it was posted today, as each vote only had one point back then.) Curious what people liked about it, or upvoted it for.

Open & Welcome Thread – October 2020

There's a time-sensitive trading opportunity (probably lasting a few days), i.e., to short HTZ because it's experiencing an irrational spike in prices. See https://seekingalpha.com/article/4379637-over-1-billion-hertz-shares-traded-on-friday-because-of-bankruptcy-court-filings for details. Please only do this if you know what you're doing though, for example you understand that HTZ could spike up even more and the consequences of that if it were to happen and how to hedge against it. Also I'm not an investment advisor and this is not investment advice.

A tale from Communist China

Lessons I draw from this history:

  1. To predict a political movement, you have to understand its social dynamics and not just trust what people say about their intentions, even if they're totally sincere.
  2. Short term trends can be misleading so don't update too much on them, especially in a positive direction.
  3. Lots of people who thought they were on the right side of history actually weren't.
  4. Becoming true believers in some ideology probably isn't good for you or the society you're hoping to help. It's crucial to maintain empirical and moral uncertainties.
  5. Risk tails are fatter than people think.
A tale from Communist China

Another detail: My grandmother planed to join the Communist Revolution together with two of her classmates, who made it farther than she did. One made it all the way to Communist controlled territory (Yan'an) and later became a high official in the new government. She ended up going to prison in one of the subsequent political movements. Another one almost made it before being stopped by Nationalist authorities, who forced her to write a confession and repentance before releasing her back to her family. That ended up being dug up during the Cultural Revolution and got her branded as a traitor to Communism.

Covid 10/15: Playtime is Over

Upvoted for the important consideration, but your own brain is a source of errors for which it's hard to decorrelate, so is it really worse (or worse enough to justify the additional costs of the alternative) to just trust Zvi instead of your own judgement/integration of diverse sources?

ETA: Oh, I do read the comments here so that helps to catch Zvi's errors, if any.

Open & Welcome Thread – October 2020

My grandparents on both sides of my family seriously considered leaving China (to the point of making concrete preparations), but didn't because things didn't seem that bad, until it was finally too late.

Open & Welcome Thread – October 2020

Writing a detailed post is too costly and risky for me right now. One of my grandparents was confined in a makeshift prison for ten years during the Cultural Revolution and died shortly after, for something that would normally be considered totally innocent that he did years earlier. None of them saw that coming, so I'm going to play it on the safe side and try to avoid saying things that could be used to "cancel" me or worse. But there are plenty of articles on the Internet you can find by doing some searches. If none of them convinces you how serious the problem is, PM me and I'll send you some links.

Everything I Know About Elite America I Learned From ‘Fresh Prince’ and ‘West Wing’

There's a number of ways to interpret my question, and I kind of mean all of them:

  1. If my stated and/or revealed preferences are that I don't value joining the elite class very much, is that wrong in either an instrumental or terminal sense?
  2. For people who do seem to value it a lot, either for themselves or their kids (e.g., parents obsessed with getting their kids into an elite university), is that wrong in either an instrumental or terminal sense?

By "either an instrumental or terminal sense" I mean is "joining the elite" (or should it be) an terminal value or just a instrumental value? If it's just an instrumental value, is "joining the elite" actually a good way to achieve people's terminal values?

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