LESSWRONG
LW

1042
wfe2017
4010
Message
Dialogue
Subscribe

Posts

Sorted by New

Wikitag Contributions

Comments

Sorted by
Newest
No wikitag contributions to display.
AGI and the EMH: markets are not expecting aligned or unaligned AI in the next 30 years
wfe201717d50

This idea seems to have been expounded on in this paper: https://economics.mit.edu/sites/default/files/2025-07/Pricing%20Transformative%20AI_0.pdf.

Relevant part in the middle of page 2: "The intuition is simple: if we think AI will dramatically increase the rate of economic growth, then (on average across the economy) we must expect to be richer in the future than we are today. This should decrease the marginal value of future consumption relative to present consumption, so real interest rates must rise in equilibrium. On the other hand, if we think AI poses an existential risk, and so doubt that we will be alive in the future, this should also drive up interest rates. Thus, both higher growth expectations and more concern for existential risk should increase real interest rates."

Reply
No posts to display.