I've dealt with chronic pain for the better part of a decade and I've come to almost the same conclusion independantly.
Your first link here is broken: https://www.lesswrong.com/s/pvoxjtCbkcweBLn7
Did you mean to include this one? https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RTkatYxJWvXR4Qbyd/deceptive-alignment-is-less-than-1-likely-by-default
I've dealt with chronic pain for the better part of a decade and I've come to almost the same conclusion independantly.