William Tsai


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I would always choose the highest expected value if the bet can be repeated and I can withstand the losses. But I can rationalize the preference for certainty in a couple of ways and these might be the same psychology. A: once you said 100%. I treat it as my $24000 and loss aversion might prevent me from betting it to win $3000 despite the favorable odds. B: I don't want to live with the regret of not winning $24000 even if it only happens 3% of the time, whereas I can't really tell the difference 1% makes thus I can't attribute any regret to my choice between 2a and 2b.