Something just clicked for me. I mean, regarding the subject of the original post. There is a true dilemma, and in that dilemma, the choices of a pure Bayesian will look crazy to a Scientist, and vice versa.
The hard difference between Science and Bayes is that Bayes does not require a model; Science does. Bayes simply predicts probabilities; Science attempts to establish a model that explains the probabilities.
Thus, a Bayesian won't care about the quality of the model he's given, EXCEPT that it must not be complex (a nonexistent model will work just fine)....
"The latter, since there are no Garden of Eden patterns in physics."
Thank you for your excellent job of communicating (and the GoE link decreased possible ambiguities, too).
How do we know that there are no Garden of Eden patterns? That is a very interesting claim. In attempting to reverse-engineer it, I remembered that according to quantum theory, each wavefunction is nowhere zero. Thus, any collection of particles could tunnel into place over any distance in any organization you could possibly specify. Is that the key to the proof?
At any rate, I...
Nick, thank you for the post. It almost answered my question -- I just need to make sure I'm not totally misreading it.
"But, yes, every outcome is real in some world."
When you say "outcome" do you mean "every outcome of quantum processes", or do you mean "every event"? Do you mean "every possible result of physical processes" or do you mean "every configuration regardless of physical antecedents"?
As a specific example, is there a world where one human was born of a virgin, performed miraculous hea...
Let me pull the money quote from the article:
"The tradition handed down through the generations says that a new physics theory comes up with new experimental predictions that distinguish it from the old theory."
This is superficially correct, but I think it's irrelevant. Quantum theory is already a theory with well-established laws. None of the contending interpretations of those laws -- many-worlds, collapse, hidden-variables, and so on -- are theories, and none of them propose new laws (suggesting that there might be a law we don't know doesn't ...
"If the exact physical state is underdetermined by the problem description, then there will be separate branches of the wavefunction for each possible state, although they might have diverged arbitrarily long ago. So, yes."
Are you seriously proposing that my use of ambiguous language splits the universe? This is unbelievable. I understand how incoherency would split the universe, but how can ambiguous language do that? How about false information -- if my bank tells me that my paycheck came in, is there an alternate world where my paycheck in fac...
"That's Occam's razor, not Science. The scientific method >is taken to suggest< that an untestable theory is of no use."
Watch that passive voice -- unless you're going to actually claim that the scientific method suggests that, I don't care what someone somewhere took it to suggest.
The scientific method doesn't suggest anything. It's a method, not a philosophy. As a method, it gives you steps to follow. A hypothesis is untestable; a theory's been tested. A model integrates theories. MW is a model.
"What's more, Occam's razor isn't some ...
"The most important implication is that the scientific method can break down."
I don't understand how this is a consequence of MW. We've always known that the scientific community can and does break down. The scientific method breaks down even theoretically (if you use K-complexity to assess it). And I'm not even sure that the MWI situation is a breakdown... It seems there are more than two interpretations (it's not just collapse versus many-worlds).
"There are some minor ethical implications of many-worlds itself (e.g., average utilitarianism...
"Computer programs in which language? The kolmogorov complexity of a given string depends on the choice of description language (or programming language, or UTM) used."
They only depend to within a constant factor. That's not the problem; the REAL problem is that K-complexity is uncomputable, meaning that you cannot in any way prove that the program you're proposing is, or is NOT, the shortest possible program to express the law.
I'm trying to comprehend how this is a dilemma... Science supposedly teaches that for any two theories that explain the same data, the simplest one is correct. Bayes can't talk about explaining data without invoking the science that collected the data... Can he?
It would seem that the theory of science includes Bayesian theory.
On the other hand, the practice of science requires either exhibiting evidence for theories or testing falsifiable theories. Many Worlds can trivially be falsified by actually finding a collapse, while its main distinguishing feature ...
"@Caledonian: If it is an old and trivial insight, why do most scientists and near all non-scientists ignore it?"
They don't. The mismatch between you and them is that they're busy thinking about something else at the moment. I like the rule Turney gave above: "Doubt everything, but one at a time, not all at once." Of course, a single person can't follow that rule completely (there's not enough time in a lifespan to doubt EVERYTHING), and most people pick the wrong things to doubt or are lazy in applying the rule.
Of course, that rule's g... (read more)