I don't quite get the argument here; doesn't anthropic shadow imply we have nothing to worry about (except for maybe hyperexistential risks) since we're guaranteed to be living in a timeline where humanity survives in the end?
But it doesn't say we're guaranteed not to be living in a timeline where humanity doesn't survive.
If I had a universe copying machine and a doomsday machine, pressed the “universe copy” button 1000 times (for 2¹⁰⁰⁰ universes), then smashed relativistic meteors into Earth in all but one of them… would you call that an ethical issue? I certainly would, even though the inhabitants of the original universe are guaranteed to be living in a timeline where they don't die horribly from a volcanic apocalypse.
I can't remember pain, in much the same way. Perhaps extreme depression “counts as” mental pain enough to trigger this effect?
Write “half”, or (if you're feeling pedantic), “~half”.
Bayesian inference only functions within known solution-space. Spotting things outside of known solution space, while rare, is essential for the progression of science – and can't be modelled simply as Bayesian inference.
Did anyone point out that the 3DS has a camera title?
Communication transfers ideas from one person to another. If technically correct communication transfers false ideas, it is deception. Accurate communication transfers correct ideas with high fidelity, which isn't necessarily equivalent to technically correct communication.
I can confirm that that's an expression in English.
but it's hard to hear the story and imagine that that grandpa is an old timey european, talking about good wolves.
That is what I thought. Not "old timey" per se, but modern grandparent age. The story feels five to ten years old, to me.
or so as not to confuse the public with changed numbers
If you're withholding knowledge to avoid confusing people, chances are that your withholding is the primary source of confusion. Just say "new estimates" or "revised estimates" – job done.
I think the bigger problem with the argument is: if Jesus rose from the dead for the same reasons that a randomly-selected human would, then Jesus is just an arbitrary human who got lucky, and mainstream Christianity is false. So if you're invoking that to try to estimate whether Christianity is true or not, you're clearly asking the wrong question.