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Are coincidences clues about missed disasters? It depends on your answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem.

I don't quite get the argument here; doesn't anthropic shadow imply we have nothing to worry about (except for maybe hyperexistential risks) since we're guaranteed to be living in a timeline where humanity survives in the end?

But it doesn't say we're guaranteed not to be living in a timeline where humanity doesn't survive.

If I had a universe copying machine and a doomsday machine, pressed the “universe copy” button 1000 times (for 2¹⁰⁰⁰ universes), then smashed relativistic meteors into Earth in all but one of them… would you call that an ethical issue? I certainly would, even though the inhabitants of the original universe are guaranteed to be living in a timeline where they don't die horribly from a volcanic apocalypse.

Self-Keeping Secrets

I can't remember pain, in much the same way. Perhaps extreme depression “counts as” mental pain enough to trigger this effect?

Taking the awkwardness out of a Prenup - A Game Theoretic solution

Write “half”, or (if you're feeling pedantic), “~half”.

The Copernican Revolution from the Inside

Bayesian inference only functions within known solution-space. Spotting things outside of known solution space, while rare, is essential for the progression of science – and can't be modelled simply as Bayesian inference.

Mundane Magic

Did anyone point out that the 3DS has a camera title?

Mundane Magic

Communication transfers ideas from one person to another. If technically correct communication transfers false ideas, it is deception. Accurate communication transfers correct ideas with high fidelity, which isn't necessarily equivalent to technically correct communication.

Magic Brain Juice

but it's hard to hear the story and imagine that that grandpa is an old timey european, talking about good wolves.

That is what I thought. Not "old timey" per se, but modern grandparent age. The story feels five to ten years old, to me.

Covid 7/9: Lies, Damn Lies and Death Rates

or so as not to confuse the public with changed numbers

If you're withholding knowledge to avoid confusing people, chances are that your withholding is the primary source of confusion. Just say "new estimates" or "revised estimates" – job done.

Are Your Enemies Innately Evil?

What could survive is a propensity to become the sort of person to sacrifice yourself to protect your family. given that no other family member has done so. Or, a propensity to sacrifice yourself that would normally kick in after you've had kids. But actually sacrificing yourself before you pass on your genes is a textbook example of "selected against".

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