Wiki Contributions


The LessWrong Team is now Lightcone Infrastructure, come work with us!

The lightcone is such a great symbol. It also kind of looks like an hourglass, evoking (to me) the image of time (and galaxies) slipping away. Kudos! 

Speculations Concerning the First Free-ish Prediction Market

you really could have been the first mover on a few of these new enterprises back in 2021 if you had brainstormed a bit. Describe one of them.


  • Curated data services for forecasting.
  • High-trust paid newsletter/research service oriented around interesting markets. Maintain a publicly-verifiable scoreboard linked to market positions to demonstrate reliability.
  • Insurance markets - take an extreme position as a catastrophe hedge, use this to subsidize market making.
  • Social network - rationales and discussion for various markets. Content discovery algorithms could include historic accuracy so truth propagates more easily.
  • Infrastructure to annotate opinion pieces with concrete predictions, link to market positions.
  • ... [will update if more occur to me]
What are you surprised people don't just buy?

Lots of things, but the biggest win is probably snow removal services.

For $200 a year I save several dozen hours of drudgery, there's no management/coordination overhead to speak of, and my plow guy does a better job than I would have.

What's the most annoying part of your life/job?

The commentary below has focused on child care - a more salient pain point for our demographic, surely - but the "elder care" angle actually seems much more promising. Still labor-intensive, but fewer regulatory nightmares (?).

Note there are some very large regional players in this game, but there don't appear to be any Starbucks-size winners (so says my wife, who often works with the elderly).

Program good ethics into artificial intelligence

Thanks! LW was malfunctioning when I posted this, otherwise I would have.

What's the most annoying part of your life/job?


Also, schlep alert: this might be the densest regulatory thicket outside of healthcare, with huge variation in standards at (at least?) the state/province level. In my little environment of 13 million Ontarians, a recent arbitrary change of the teacher/child ratio allegedly drove a good many daycares out of business.

Also, parents are insane (source: am parent).

Now is the time to eliminate mosquitoes

Assemble a group of scientists who on their own could eradicate mosquitoes and just do it. Don't wait for official approval.

The appeal of this route is obvious, but I don't think it should be discussed on a public forum.

Now is the time to eliminate mosquitoes

Agreed! What would be the best approach (I'm a PhD student and vector-borne disease epidemiologist)?

  • Writing one or more popular/lay articles
  • Writing one or more technical/scholarly articles
  • Writing a popular/lay book
  • Writing a technical/scholarly book
  • Starting an advocacy non-profit
  • Performing an explicit cost-benefit analysis
  • Modelling to determine the necessary conditions for eradication
  • Something else... ?
Lesswrong 2016 Survey

Yar, have taken the scurvy survey, says I!

To contribute to AI safety, consider doing AI research

Your definition what counts as "AI related" seems to be narrower than mine, but fine. I trust readers can judge whether the linked resources are of interest.

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