cross-posted to EA Forum TLDR We’re giving out $4,000 to the best forecast writeups submitted via this form on these Metaculus questions by March 11 to encourage more people to forecast on impactful questions and write up their reasoning. Motivation We believe that forecasting on impactful questions is a great...
This is a link post for Michael Nielsen's "If correlation doesn’t imply causation, then what does?" (2012). I want to highlight the post for a few reasons: (1) it is a well-written introduction by an experienced science communicator — Michael is an author of the most famous book on quantum...
But I (and I think others on LW team although for slightly different reasons) have been thinking about building a feature directly into LW to facilitate it.
Maybe consider making it super easy (one click easy) to export LW posts to google docs?
ACX is probably a better reference class: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-subscription-drive-free-unlocked. In Jan, ACX had 78.2k readers, of which 6.0k subscribers for a 7.7% subscription rate.
I think it might be good to normalize "just try stuff until they fix your condition" as one of the treatment strategies. I guess it's a bit ironic that Dr. Spray-n-pray's indifference toward which pill worked and why seems so epistemically careless, while actually maybe being a correct way to orient towards success when you optimize for luck and have little reliable information.
- Russian military doctrine allows the usage of nuclear weapons to defend Russian territory.
This is ~false. See: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/TkLk2xoeE9Hrx5Ziw/nuclear-attack-risk-implications-for-personal-decision?commentId=ukEznwTnD78wFdZip#ukEznwTnD78wFdZip
Trust | ||
Rule Thinkers In, Not Out | Scott Alexander | |
Gears vs Behavior | John S. Wentworth | |
Book Review: The Secret Of Our Success | Scott Alexander | |
Reason isn't magic | Ben Hoffman | |
"Other people are wrong" vs "I am right" | Buck Shlegeris | |
In My Culture | Duncan Sabien | |
Chris Olah's views on AGI safety | Evan Hubinger | |
Understanding "Deep Double Descent" | Evan Hubinger | |
How to Ignore Your Emotions (while also thinking you're awesome at emotions) | Hazard | |
Paper-Reading for Gears | John S. Wentworth | |
Book summary: Unlocking the Emotional Brain | Kaj Sotala | |
Noticing Frame Differences | Raymond Arnold | |
Propagating Facts into Aesthetics | Raymond Arnold | |
Do you fear the rock or the hard place? | Ruben Bloom | |
Mental Mountains | Scott Alexander | |
Steelmanning Divination | Vaniver | |
Modularity | ||
Book Review: Design Principles of Biological Circuits | John S. Wentworth | |
Reframing Superintelligence: Comprehensive AI Services as General Intelligence | Rohin M. Shah | |
Building up to an Internal Family Systems model | Kaj Sotala | |
Being the (Pareto) Best in the World | John | |
cross-posted to EA Forum
We’re giving out $4,000 to the best forecast writeups submitted via this form on these Metaculus questions by March 11 to encourage more people to forecast on impactful questions and write up their reasoning.
We believe that forecasting on impactful questions is a great candidate for an activity more EA-interested people should partake in, given that it:
This is informed by personal experience: we have learned a lot and found... (read 982 more words →)
I want to mention that Tsvi Benson-Tilsen is a mentor at this summer's PIBBSS. So some readers might consider applying (the deadline is Jan 23rd).
I myself was mentored by Abram Demski once through the FHI SRF, which AFAIK was matching fellows with a large pull of researchers based on mutual interests.
I am looking for text-to-speech tools for various contexts. As of now, I am using
This is a link post for Michael Nielsen's "If correlation doesn’t imply causation, then what does?" (2012).
I want to highlight the post for a few reasons:
(1) it is a well-written introduction by an experienced science communicator — Michael is an author of the most famous book on quantum computing;
(2) causal inference is an essential tool for understanding the world;
(3) two recent AI safety papers use causal influence diagrams to (a) understand agent incentives [arXiv, Medium] and (b) to provide a new perspective on some problems in AGI safety [arXiv].
There is already a lot of automatic censoring happening. I am unsure how much LLMs add on top of existing and fairly successful techniques from spam filtering. And just using LLMs is probably prohibitive at the scale of social media (definitely for tech companies, maybe not for governments), but perhaps you can get an edge for some use-case with them.