I think it might be good to normalize "just try stuff until they fix your condition" as one of the treatment strategies. I guess it's a bit ironic that Dr. Spray-n-pray's indifference toward which pill worked and why seems so epistemically careless, while actually maybe being a correct way to orient towards success when you optimize for luck and have little reliable information.

1. Russian military doctrine allows the usage of nuclear weapons to defend Russian territory.

This is ~false. See: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/TkLk2xoeE9Hrx5Ziw/nuclear-attack-risk-implications-for-personal-decision?commentId=ukEznwTnD78wFdZip#ukEznwTnD78wFdZip

See:

• Assessing Kurzweil prediction about 2019: the results
• Kurzweil's 2009 is our 2019
• Assessing Kurzweil predictions about 2019: the results
   

Here is a google sheet.

I am looking for text-to-speech tools for various contexts.  As of now, I am using

• @Voice Aloud Reader (TTS Reader) and a custom script to extract articles from webpages for Android (supports .epub and .pdf as well);
• Capti Voice on my desktop for everything.

I would appreciate it if the ToC linked to the web versions of the essay.

A follow-up (h/t LW review). I got quite a bit out of the workshop, most importantly

• I found a close friend and collaborator, whom I don't think I would have met otherwise.
• I found a close friend and co-founder, whom I was likely to meet otherwise, but it's unlikely that we would have a good enough bond by covid-times.

There was much more but much less legible and "evaluatable." I think ESE was excellent, and I would have done it even if I knew that I wouldn't get two close friendships out of it.

Or, to change tack: the operating budget of the LessWrong website has historically been ~$600k, and this budget is artificially low because the site has paid extremely below-market salaries. Adjusting for the market value of the labor, the cost is more like $1M/year, or $2,700/day. If I assume LessWrong generates more value than the cost required to run it, I estimate that the site provides at least $2,700/day in value, probably a good deal more.

I think this estimate is mistaken because it ignores marginalism: basically, the cost of disabling LW for a year is much larger than 365 * the cost of disabling LW for only a day.  The same goes for disabling the whole website vs. disabling only the frontpage.

(Sorry for adding salt to hurt feelings; posting because impact evaluation of longtermism projects is important.)

Maybe reading Gelman's self-contained comments on SSC's More Confounders would make you more confused in a good way.