I want to mention that Tsvi Benson-Tilsen is a mentor at this summer's PIBBSS. So some readers might consider applying (the deadline is Jan 23rd).
I myself was mentored by Abram Demski once through the FHI SRF, which AFAIK was matching fellows with a large pull of researchers based on mutual interests.
I am looking for text-to-speech tools for various contexts. As of now, I am using
I would appreciate it if the ToC linked to the web versions of the essay.
A follow-up (h/t LW review). I got quite a bit out of the workshop, most importantly
There was much more but much less legible and "evaluatable." I think ESE was excellent, and I would have done it even if I knew that I wouldn't get two close friendships out of it.
Or, to change tack: the operating budget of the LessWrong website has historically been ~$600k, and this budget is artificially low because the site has paid extremely below-market salaries. Adjusting for the market value of the labor, the cost is more like $1M/year, or $2,700/day. If I assume LessWrong generates more value than the cost required to run it, I estimate that the site provides at least $2,700/day in value, probably a good deal more.
I think this estimate is mistaken because it ignores marginalism: basically, the cost of disabling LW for a year is much larger than 365 * the cost of disabling LW for only a day. The same goes for disabling the whole website vs. disabling only the frontpage.
(Sorry for adding salt to hurt feelings; posting because impact evaluation of longtermism projects is important.)
Maybe reading Gelman's self-contained comments on SSC's More Confounders would make you more confused in a good way.
Hey! Could you say more about a causal link between Sequences and writing these papers, please:
I was able to do from muscle memory certain calculations about conditional probability and expectation that might have taken weeks otherwise (if we figured them out at all). I attribute this ability in large part to reading the Sequences.
I think my confusion comes from (a) having enough math background (read some chapters of The Probabilistic Method yers ago); (b) while reading Sequences and more so AF discussions added to my understanding of formal epistemology, I am surprised that your emphasis how Sequences affected your muscle memory and ability to do calculations.
As this answer got upvoted, I collected some Dubna's courses read in English, for which recordings are available (look for "Доступны 4 видеозаписи курса.")
TrustRule Thinkers In, Not OutScott AlexanderGears vs BehaviorJohn S. WentworthBook Review: The Secret Of Our SuccessScott AlexanderReason isn't magicBen Hoffman"Other people are wrong" vs "I am right"Buck ShlegerisIn My CultureDuncan SabienChris Olah's views on AGI safetyEvan HubingerUnderstanding "Deep Double Descent"Evan HubingerHow to Ignore Your Emotions (while also thinking you're awesome at emotions)HazardPaper-Reading for GearsJohn S. WentworthBook summary: Unlocking the Emotional BrainKaj SotalaNoticing Frame DifferencesRaymond ArnoldPropagating Facts into AestheticsRaymond ArnoldDo you fear the rock or the hard place?Ruben BloomMental MountainsScott AlexanderSteelmanning DivinationVaniverModularityBook Review: Design Principles of Biological CircuitsJohn S. WentworthReframing Superintelligence: Comprehensive AI Services as General IntelligenceRohin M. ShahBuilding up to an Internal Family Systems modelKaj SotalaBeing the (Pareto) Best in the WorldJohn S. WentworthThe Schelling Choice is "Rabbit", not "Stag"Raymond ArnoldLiterature Review: Distributed TeamsElizabeth Van NostrandGears-Level Models are Capital InvestmentsJohn S. WentworthEvolution of ModularityJohn S. WentworthYou Have About Five WordsRaymond ArnoldCoherent decisions imply consistent utilitiesEliezer YudkowskyAlignment Research Field GuideAbram DemskiForum participation as a research strategyWei DaiThe Credit Assignment ProblemAbram DemskiSelection vs ControlAbram DemskiIncentivesAsymmetric JusticeZvi MowshowitzThe Copenhagen Interpretation of EthicsJai DhyaniUnconscious EconomicsJacob LagerrosPower Buys You Distance From The CrimeElizabeth Van NostrandSeeking Power is Often Convergently Instrumental in MDPsAlexander Turner & Logan SmithYes Requires the Possibility of NoScott GarrabrantMistakes with Conservation of Expected EvidenceAbram DemskiHeads I Win,Tails?—Never Heard of Her; Or, Selective Reporting and the Tragedy of the Green RationalistsZack M. DavisExcerpts from a larger discussion about simulacraBen HoffmanMoloch Hasn’t WonZvi MowshowitzIntegrity and accountability are core parts of rationalityOliver HabrykaThe Real Rules Have No ExceptionsSaid AchmizSimple Rules of LawZvi MowshowitzThe Amish, and Strategic Norms around TechnologyRaymond ArnoldRisks from Learned Optimization: IntroductionEvan Hubinger, Chris van Merwijk, Vladimir Mikulik, Joar Skalse, & Scott GarrabrantGradient hackingEvan HubingerFailureThe Parable of Predict-O-MaticAbram DemskiBlackmailZvi MowshowitzBioinfohazardsMegan Crawford, Finan Adamson, & Jeffrey LadishWhat failure looks likePaul ChristianoSeeking Power is Often Convergently Instrumental in MDPsAlexander Turner & Logan SmithAI Safety “Success Stories”Wei DaiReframing ImpactAlexander TurnerThe strategy-stealing assumptionPaul ChristianoIs Rationalist Self-Improvement Real?Jacob FalkovichThe Curse Of The CounterfactualP.J. Ebyhuman psycholinguists: a critical appraisalNostalgebraistWhy wasn't science invented in China?Ruben BloomMake more landJeff KaufmanRest Days vs Zombie DaysLauren LeeHere is a google sheet.