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Yanling Guo
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Economics101 predicted the failure of special card payments for refugees, 3 months later whole of Germany wants to adopt it
Yanling Guo10mo20

I haven’t logged in for three months, so I just read your comment. Sure economics can’t explain everything and cost-benefit analysis is not the only factor affecting popularity (though often the most relevant). Can you be more specific about what do you think makes the card so popular, even if it didn’t satisfy the cost-benefit criterion?

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Can UBI overcome inflation and rent seeking?
Yanling Guo1y10

Yes, the special card I suggested is like food stamps (I guess with food stamps you can also choose between different foods and are not bound to a particular food) or Medicare (where you can also choose I guess), only the card idea is slightly more oriented to the supply side (a flat supply curve is the premise), while ultimately the consumers also benefit.

I guess in many aspects I‘m also a poor person, but I haven’t yet found the time to really think about it, because I really doubt if things would be any different if I would be a bit richer. I certainly don’t starve, in fact I‘m thinking about putting up a foundation to give something back to the society, because in Germany you can also put up a foundation with little capital. My idea also has something to do with AI, but not with UBI. I think labor division is great, but also has side effects: people in different jobs tend to be alienated and fragile, a lawyer doesn’t really understand a nurse, losing a good paid job often makes the person suddenly doubt on her worthiness although it’s still the same person. With AI I could generate lots of contents to help people navigate the life. For example, if someone looks for food, I can show them where to find the food cheaper, how to assess the nutritional value of the food, and how the food is made. If you have made the food yourself one time, you can more appreciate the time and effort by the producer, I think. By no means should everyone make all his own food, that’s contra-productive, but they should have the possibility to know how things they depend on daily are made, that gives them more confidence, and sometimes someone may even find a new endeavor, (I know there are some former chemists who became chefs and teach molecular cooking). The users can also network, discuss new ideas, get together for a project or put up a new company. The general idea is that now things can be produced cheaper due to scale effect, so we need new demand, including new idea. If someone earns lots on AI, the money he gets has no direct use for him, he must buy goods. If we can make more users acquainted with entrepreneurship, turn more consumers into producers, then today’s winners can also get more rewards in real terms, namely more gadgets which are new of its kind, while today’s losers can find new work to do which in turn enables them to buy more AI. By blurring the boundaries between producers and consumers, as well as between different professions, people can also understand each other better. While this is not about UBI, I do see both as complimentary: with some UBI, or food stamps or whatever, people are insured, have time to get better informed and improve themselves, and I intend to serve them the above mentioned information to help them find a better opportunity more easily.

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Can UBI overcome inflation and rent seeking?
Yanling Guo1y10

I fully agree with Radford, while all others also made some good points. My question is: why does UBI have to be paid out as dollar, and not e.g. in form of coupons for say, e-books? The cost for producing one more copy of ebook is almost zero, so you can even finance it by printing money and the price won’t go up, as the quantity varies with demand.

You could even do it on a larger scale: you give everyone a special card with certain amount which can only be used at vendors who agree to keep price constant. For instance, if strawberry sellers have plenty strawberries to sell in May, where the marginal cost is almost zero, they can apply to be partner in May and promise to keep price constant in May, and mid May they can apply for June or decide not to. If Alaska suffers from declining population, it can apply and promise to keep rents constant for a year, and 6 months before year end it can decide whether to continue. The card holders can see online or in a dedicated app, where they can use this card for what and how long. The card is not as comfortable as cash to use, but one gets it for free. For the society as a whole, it can tilt demand towards where supply curve is flat and the risk of inflation is low, since only vendors with (temporary or permanent) low variable cost will apply, otherwise it wouldn’t be profitable to promise a constant price to attract more demand. What do you think?

And if you don’t mind, I‘d also like to ask what are the two numbers beside the commentator id mean. One looks like the thumb up/down as in other social networks, but what is the other for?

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Universal Basic Income and Poverty
Yanling Guo1y00

Great post! Really. I used to be a picky reader and even if you show me the tweet of a Nobel laureate, I can immediately pick out a few points to criticize, which, of course, doesn’t mean that they aren’t way better than me in economics. A few tweets doesn’t say much about someone’s achievement, if you read my tweets, you can certainly find more to pick on. That you’ve achieved a lot in life, doesn’t even need to be mentioned by me, all know it.

Although I don’t agree with every point in this post, I quite like its philosophical touch, which possibly explains why you, unlike many other non-economists, can directly see through the veil of money and from start on addressed the crucial point (of goods and productivity). I don’t want to list here the points I would pick on, it’s not productive. I don’t need to say what you can improve on either, as the highly rated comments have already said all possible things. Because I‘m not well informed about UBI, I only have one question: why does it have to be paid out in dollar, and not e.g. as coupons for some goods with near zero variable cost?

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3Economics101 predicted the failure of special card payments for refugees, 3 months later whole of Germany wants to adopt it
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