LESSWRONG
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yassine chaouche
9050
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Bayes Rule Log Odds Form
yassine chaouche8y*50

It would be nice to show how to go from 99.8% to the 500:1 ratio.

Reply4
Bayes Rule Odds Form
yassine chaouche8y*20

Would that mean that the strength of evidence is the TP/FP ratio ? in that case, it would have the same definition as the relative likelihood. Wouldn't there be a better definition for either one of the notions so that we can easily differentiate them ?

Reply1
Waterfall Diagram
yassine chaouche8y*40

How did it convert to 3/7th is unclear.

Reply3
Frequency Diagram
yassine chaouche8y*10

Is this the same question as : what is the probablity that the test gives correct results ? We can also ask 3 other questions :

  • What is the probability of a student with a black tongue depressor do not have Diseasitis ?
  • What is the probability of a student witiout a black tongue depressor have Diseasitis ?
  • What is the probability of a student witiout a black tongue depressor do not have Diseasitis ?
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Frequency Diagram
yassine chaouche8y*20

Another interesting question to ask is what is the single probablity of the tongue depressor to give accurate results ?

If we know that the tongue depressor has a 5% error on all students, sicks and non sicks, we can predict that the probability of being sick is (another rule here ? or another fashion of using the rule if applicable)

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Bayes' rule: Odds form
8y