There is clearly some randomness to the results. Some individual foods clearly seem to go down better than other (A looks like it has the biggest individual effect). There are also seem to be a number of correlations between different foods, though I couldn't find a general pattern or disentagle it completly. Feasts with five or 6 dishes seems to go down best.
Based on what I was able to find ABFOP looks best to me, but I won't be surprised if better feasts are available.
Thank you for posting this. I agree with the advertised ratings. I particularly liked that some were a lot easier to catch than others, and you could gradually make progrees.
Nettie Silver is always in the city.
Either one of Azeru or Cayn are always in the city.
Either Archiwise the Bald or Boltholopew are always in the city
When the above are excluded the only pair of mages where at least one is present in the city when Bumblepox and Scramblepox are cured are Azure and Danny Nova are always in the city. So accuse them of those.
When Chucklepox or Gurglepox are cure there are two different pairs where at least one was in the city. Danny Nova and Dankon Ground look the most likely culprits for Gurglepox. Lomerius Xardus and Danny Nova look like the most likely pair for Chucklepox.
Mildly But Persistently Itchy Throat is always cured when Dankon Ground is on the opposite side of the city, so accuse him of this.
Tehami Darke is always in sector 6 when a case of Disquietingly Serene Bowel Syndrome is healed in sectors 1,2, and 12. He is always in the city when a case of this is healed. This is enough to provisionally assign all the other cases to him.
Both Boltholopew and Moon Finder are always in an adjacent sector when Problems Disorder, Parachondria, and Disease Syndrome are healed. There appears to be no obvious way to discriminate b
Only about 3/4 of healings had a mage present in the sector at the time, so either we have cases of mages healing in sectors other than the one where they are in, or there is some other source of healing.
A mage is only reliably present when Babblepox, Scraped Elbow, Scraped Knee, and Smokesickness is cured.
Nettie Silver was always in the sector where Smokesickness was cured, so accuse her of this.
Zancro was always in the sector where Scraped Knee and scraped elbow was cured so accuse him of these.
Danny Nova was always in the sector where babblepox is
Thank you for posting this. I found it more difficult than most to untangle the rules behind what was going on, but easier than most to find a candidate that I could be reasonably confident would do a lot better than random selection (Which then turned out to be the best). Possibly having more candidates to choose from, with a smaller difference between the top candidates, would have made ML more effective relative to pure analysis.
I would prefer it if the next one came a week later as I am expecing to be very busy that week.
I am going for number 11, mainly because other adventurers with predictions similar to 11 did unusually well.
Thank you for posting this. Getting a very good or pefect answer felt a lot easier than most, however getting from a very good answer to a perfect answer seemed more difficult than most. I identified a very good answer very quickly just by looking for combinations that were present in the dataset. It was then rather frustrating to make a lot of progress in untangling the rules and still being unable to find a better solution than the first one I found. Overalll I would rate it as difficulty = 2/5 playability 2/5 where 3 is an average D and D puzzle.
!> I was able to generalise the formula to a wide range of scenrios involving heades, but the eyes are more complicated. Aside from forceing the tax to 0 when it would otherwise be relatively small I didn't find a consistent pattern. As I can't find anything obviously better I will stick with my original entry.
The tax is always the same for the same set of monster parts so no randomness is involved.
I then looked for entries where only one type of part was present. With the exception of the heads this gave some obvious formulas:
When only eyes are present no tax is paid
When only heads are present tax is 2.8 for 1, 8.4 for 2 21 for 3 and 29.4 for 4.
When only skulls are present tax is the number of skulls
When only hands are present the tax is 0.2 times the number of hands.
When only horns are present and their number is < 5 the tax is 1.4*number of horns, and 1.75
Thank you for posting this. I rate this as about 3/5 for both complexity and quality. It was relatively easy to make some progress, but getting a perfect answer that you know is perfect looks hard. I think adding more rooms to the dungeon would have made things more difficult as it would have added more combinations to consider.
I only had time to construct a simple model based on the average value of the score for different encounters in different dungeons. Based on this my submission is:
COG/GOB/WHD
And when Goblins aren't present:
CON/WOB/NHD
I was expecting earlier choices of foraging location to have a much stronger impact, and mistook some of the randomness for affects of earlier choices. In retrospect it would have been better to spend longer exploreing various possibilites rather than settling on an exploit strategy so soon. Adding an explicit target was a big improvement as it gave some idea of "how good a strategy" we should be searching for.
I starte off by going to each one in turn. And then visiting those sites that yielded the best results. It rapidly became clear that some sites were better at different times of the day, and visiting one site too much could result in diminishing returns. Then I spent an entire day at each site in turn and then visited the sites that produce the most food at a given time. The relative order of visiting sites did have an affect so this didn't always work particularly well. After a bit of playing around and experimentation I ended up settling on the following
Thank you for posting this. Overall I would rate this as a middle of the road (ie good) scenario. Complexity 3/5, quality 3/5.
I thought the bonus objective was in principal a good addition, though it could have done with an extra couple of known words. As it is unless you spot the anomaly with Cadagals boots it seems next to impossible to figure out what it might mean.
Overall I think a gap of about 2 months is better than short gaps of one month followed by longer gaps of several months. Though possibly not this time as that would put it right in the middle of the Christmas period!
Looking at how various combinataions of race and class do against one another when their levels are the same there are clearly some combinations that do a lot better than others. Increasing the level helps to an extent, but the race/class combination looks like it is easily the most important factor. Special items do help, but less than the level. In most cases boots seem a bit more useful than gauntlets.
Manually scanning through the data suggests that the following combinations hopefully won't be too bad:
DWARF NINJA v HUMAN WARRIOR + 1 boots o
In general there seems to be a weak correlation between each of the attributes and costs,both when you consider every exorcist and the individual group.
- For corporeality the mystics seem to have a weak negative linear correlation. The rest look like they have a weak step function
- For sliminess the mystics seem to have a weak negative linear correlation. All except the Pummelers (Which look linear) seem to have a weak step function.
- For intellect the Mystics again appear to have a weak linear correlation. The Slayers have a linear positive correlat
All potions have between 3 and 8 ingredients. Those with 6 and 7 are most liekly to succeed with 3 being particularly unlikely. In particular Barkskin Potion is never brewed successfully with only 3.
Barkskin Potion, in common with all other potions has two ingredients that must be present, in this case Crushed Onyx and Ground Bone.
The same set of ingredients sometimes produce different potions so there is clearly some randomness involved.
Scanning through the results there are several combinations that always produce the required potion. The mos
Those apprenticed under Escher, Geisel, and Penrose never produce impossible structures. Those apprenticed under Johnson and Statmin always do. Self Taught architects sometimes do.
I couldn't find a reliable way of determining which Self-Taught architects would produce impossible structures, so I will have to go with four of D, E, G, H, K.
All the really cheap structures are made out of wood and dreams. Unfortunately none of the 5 architects proposals have these materials. Excluding these the next cheapest ones are all made out of 2 of wood/dreams/steel, the
There is clearly some randomness in what happens, however peering throught the fog a few things stand out:
Campsites look like empty levels that don't have much effect.
Gaining access to treasures looks crucial for having a good chance of defeating the boss, and you normally want at least 2.
Everyone always gets past level 2. The only cases of heros being stopped at level 3 are Mages by Jar Worms. For warriors/rogues cultists and Jaw Worms seem to be equivelant but Jaw Worms are Mage eaters.
Only Mages and Rogues get stopped at level 4. All rogues are stopped