* When Monstrous Regeneration and Anomalous Agility is assigned to every hero it results in a * 36 percent win rate. When they are chosen there is only a 21 percent win rate. The sample* size is to big for this to be dismissed as a statistical fluctuation. With the DM ruling out* any difference in God assigned cheats or other time dependent effects it looks like heroes* are making their decisions based on some hidden variables we don't have access to.* * Many combinations of traits assigned by the Chaos deity also show substantial differences* (sometime better, sometimes worse), than when they are chosen. This suggests the provisional* decision to go with Radiant Splendor + Enlightenment probably isn't optimal after all.* * The best set of traits chosen by the Chaos Deity for Heroes in our class is :* Temporal Distortion + Anomalous Agility. (95 percent win rate based on 20 records)* Barrier Conjuration + Mind Place (92.3 percent Win rate based on 13 records).* Rapid XP Gain + Monstrous Regeneration (91.7 percent win rate based on 12 records)* Barrier Conjuration + temporal Distortion (88 percent win rate based on 25 records)* * Temporal Distortion + Anomalous Agility does almost as well when these cheats are chosen as well.* * On balance I think it would be a good idea to change my cheats to:* Temporal Distortion + Anomalous Agility.
For heros with our traits:
- Temporal Distortion and Rapid XP gain are the best 2 overall which seem to work well with anything. The best single combination however is Enlightenment + Radiant Splendor (94 percent win rate). Shapeshifting is just terrible and should always be avoided. The others work well with some traits, but not with others;The following combinations are very poor (< 1/2 win rate) and should not be given to other heroes like me:- Anomalous Agility + Barrier Conjuration- Anomalous Agility + Monstrous Regeneration- Anomalous Agility + Uncanny Luck- Barrier Conjuration + Monstrous Regeneration- Barrier Conjuration + Uncanny Luck- Enlightenment + Hyper Competent Dark Side- Enlightenment + Monstrous Regeneration- Hyper Competent dark Side + Mind Place- Hyper Competent Dark Side + Radiant Splendor- Hyper Competent Dark Side + Uncanny Luck- Mind Place + Uncanny Luck- Monstrous Regeneration + Radiant Splendor- Monstrous Regeneration + Uncanny Luck- Rapid XP Gain + Uncanny Luck When looking at records for all trait a different picture emerges. Here MindPlace is the ability that is terrible, and shapeshifting does reasonably well with anything except MindPlace. The only terrible combos (< 1/2 chance of success ) which don't involve MindPlace are:- Anomalous Agility + Barrier Conjuration- Barrier Conjuration + Monstrous Regeneration- Enlightenment + Hyper Competent Dark Side- Hyper Compenetent Dark Side + Radiant Splendor- Hyper competent Dark Side + Uncanny Luck Radiant Splendor and Enlightenment still does best overall though. In general our traits seem to be somewhat below average, but Radiant Splendor + Enlightment still looks like a very strong combination. This combination was noticeably less successfull (6/12 times) for heros with our traits when the Chaos deity was involved. The sample size is small, and the effect doesn't show when all heroes are considered, so this might be a statistical fluctuation; however it may be an idea to avoid further dealing with this deity, just in case it is giving inferior versions of traits to heroes like me to spread chaos.
Provisional Decision: Go with Radiant Splendor + Enlightenment
Thank you for posting this.
The need to join to other records was trivial for me.
I think the data model was too complex too fully decipher with a reasonable amount of effort, but this wasn't a problem as it wasn't necessary to get a decent answer (I might actually have got the optimal one if I hadn't blundered and missed that Italia suffered a famine in the previous year - though I was uncertain on a number of points and wasn't expecting to do as well as I did). In particular the wealth/population dependency completely passed me by.
Overall in terms of difficulty it felt OK.
Some omens/disasters are clearly correlated with what happens next year, though I couldn't find anything that stood out and made a given disaster nearly certain to happen this year. Some of the signs were also contradictory. I couldn't find any additional clear cut pattern by looking at previous years, though given that several disasters come in clumps I wouldn't be surprised if there was something to learn by looking for correlations > 1 year in the past. I suspect a complicated algorithm could need to be used to pull everything together to produce a highly accurate prediction, however my relatively simple analysis suggests that the following may not be too bad:
Interventions I am very confident are optimal:- Italia Famine Relief(10000Dn)- Grecia Plague Prevention(10000Dn)
Interventions that look reasonably likely to be optimal:- Hispania Famine relief(10000Dn)- Italia Plague Prevention(10000Dn)
Interventions that look moderately useful, but I suspect aren't optimal:- Grecia Fire Prevention(10000Dn)- Hsipania Fire Prevention (10000Dn)
There doesn't seem to be a killer card that dominates one or more of the others.
Having a balanced deck seems to be important, as the probability of winning consistently declines as the number of distinct cards falls, and the maximum number of a single card rises.
The cards clearly aren't equivelant as some groups of cards do consistently better than others.
I haven't been able to get a grip on what the rules might be, but peering through the fog suggests that the following combination won't be too bad:
2 Alessin, Adamant Angel 0 Bold Battalion 1 Dreadwing, Darkfire Dragon 2 Evil Emperor Eschanous, Empyreal envoy of entropic dead 0 Gentle Guard 1 Horrible Hooligan 0 Kindly Knight 2 Lilac Lotus 1 Murderous Minotaur 1 Patchy Pirate 0 Swords of the Shadow 2 Virtuous Vigilante
This is my provisional entry for both the main and PVP objectives.
Oops. It should be:
Infiltrate:3273 4449 4027
Legal:5058 3850 2325
Paramilitary3440 2719 4027
Min noise in 9 max is 32, with an average of 16.Everyone with > 28 noise had a Trum-Troopa. All the really low instances of noise which involved Trum-Troops were wither with a boy paired with a Fum-Foozler or a girl pared with a Who-Whonker.
Girls tend to make much more noise with Fum-Foozler than boys.
There seems to be a slight bias to younger children producing less noise with Sloo-Slonker.
If a child likes/dislikes a Gah-Ginka one year it looks like it will also like/dislike it another year.
Blum-Blooper appears to be consistently unpopular with Fum-Foozler and normally unpopular with Who-Whonker
Blum-Blooper: Ideally goes with Fum-Foozler but possibly also Who-Wonker.Fum-Foozler: Only goes to boysGah-Ginka: Goes to children that haven't liked it in previous years.Sloo-Slonker: Give to younger childrenTrun-Troops: Go to either boys with a Fum-Foozler or girls with a Who-WhonkerWho-Whonker: From others
Four Blum-Bloopers Four Fum-Foozlers Two Gah-Ginkas Three Sloo-Slonkers Three Trum-Troopas Four Who-Whonkers
Andy Sue Who 12 M Gah-Ginka, Blum-BlooperBetty Drew Who 11 F Trun-Troops, Who-WhonkerSally Sue Who 11 F Trun-Troops, Who-WhonkerPhoebe Drew Who 9 F Trun-Troops, Who-WhonkerFreddie Lou Who 8 M Fum-Foozler, Blum-BlooperEddie Sue Who 8 M Gah-Ginka, Fum-FoozlerCindy Drew Who 6 F Blum-Blooper, Who-WhonkerMary Lou Who 6 F Sloo-Slonker, Blum-BlooperOllie Lou Who 5 M Fum-Foozler, Sloo-SlonkerJohnny Drew Who 4 M Fum-Foozler, Sloo-Slonker
My final advice is as follows:
As there are only half points for duplicates focusing on one area is not a good idea. As hunts in locations where the Crow That Breaks The Sky are present it seems like a good idea to avoid Thunderwood Forest (excpet in Weeks 6). There's no information on how many points you get for different sized creatures which makes it difficult to factor that in. The number of datapoints for hunts in this period is very low so I will just crudely weight the hunts to the areas that look more promising. Week 06: Thunderwood PeaksWeek 07: The LordesteppesWeek 08: Miresmouth ForestWeek 09: Scorchsand ShoresWeek 10: Devil's MawWeek 11: The LordesteppesWeek 12: Miresmouth ForestWeek 13: Scorchsand ShoresWeek 14: The LordesteppesWeek 15: Miresmouth Forest Armour and Weapons:Again there seems to be too litle data to draw any firm conclusion so just go with what looks to bebest on average for each region.Thunderwood Peaks - Flaming Faulds armour and a StormbladeThe Lordesteppes - Electro chainmail Armour and a Badger Bludgeon.Miresmouth Forest - Electro chainmail armour and a Winder's RimeScorchsand Shores _ Ground Greaves armour and a stormbladeDevil's Maw - Windy Wear armour and a Winder's Rime
The known Genus in the monster file appear to be grouped. Together with hints about data being obscured by poor handwriting it suggests the unknown ones belong to the group they are in:Toxicala = BeastEarthmover = BeastRaging Windrider = AvianFlying Storm = DrakeWithin a genus the data is consistent with being ordered by size suggesting:Rimewinder <= ScaryDull Viper >= Rinewinder, <= ScaryPeaksnake >= Dull Viper, <= ScaryWrathrope >= Peaksnake, <= ScaryEarthmover >= medium, <= legendaryMacrophant >= Earthmover, <= legendaryFlamu >= small, <= largePuffdrake <= smallSandcrawler >= MediumThunderclap Wyvern >= Sandcrawler
Sightings by biologists:All times/During weeks 6-15Cassowarrior 46/13Cold Parrot 47/4Downhanger 98/22Dull viper 65/16Earthmover 71/15Flamu 53/12Flying Storm 45/18Macrophant 35/5Northern Badger 77/7Peaksnake 41/3Puffdrake 33/0Rimewinder 25/6Sandcrawler 53/7Thunderclap Wyvern 31/14Toxicala 19/0Wrathrope 41/8So the Toxicala is the most desirable specimen for the biologists, followed by the Rimewinder, Puffdrake, and Macrophant. The Toxicala and Puffdrake have never been seen between weeks 6 and 15. and the Rimewinder is quite likely to be a small beast. The name of the Macrophant together with it's position in the list suggests it is probably a large beast, suggesting this is the most desirable one to find on balance. During this time of the year in the past it has only been seen in the The Lordesteppes, suggesting that is a good place to go. Hunts in this location also seem to be more successful on average than the average hunt. Posion Plate armour from the Poison element has been used on more than half of the succesfull Macrophant hunts, suggesting that is the best choice for them. A sword with the wind element is the most succcessful weapon.For the locations the biologists look for specimens the following stand out:They enver go to the Devils Maw between weeks 37 and 39 or between weeks 46 and 49They never go to Miresmouth Forest in weeks 13 or weeks 33-45They never go to Scorchsan between weeks 1 and 6 and between weeks 46 and 52They never go to the Lordesteppes between weeks 20 and 32, and also in week 52They never go to Thunderwood Peaks in weeks 7-19Looking though the hunters logs hunts suggests:Hunts in the gap periods in Devils Maw are either unsucessful or yield a Sliding Queen Shash (only in the first period) which has a scary size. Possibly this is only present during these times and the ancient biologists wereto scared to got there then? That monster has not been seen anywhere else or at any other times which is consistent with this.Hunts in Miresmouth Forest between weeks 33-45 are unusually unsuccessful. Maybe the biologists are avoiding it because of poor pickings. Or more likely the Legendary Crow That Breaks The Sky frightened the biologists off, The hunters never caught one of these outside of this window which suggests the crows may only be present during this time? The times at which the crows have been caught in the Lordsteppes and Thunderwood Peaks also correspond to time when the biologists don't go there.. No crows were caught in Scorchan during the gap, however it they are migratory birds that are always present in one location then the gap would perfectly align with the time at which their location was not otherwise known, suggesting the cause of this gap is the same.