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D&D.Sci June 2022: A Goddess Tried To Reincarnate Me Into A Fantasy World, But I Insisted On Using Data Science To Select An Optimal Combination Of Cheat Skills!

 * When Monstrous Regeneration and Anomalous Agility is assigned to every hero it results in a 
* 36 percent win rate. When they are chosen there is only a 21 percent win rate. The sample
* size is to big for this to be dismissed as a statistical fluctuation. With the DM ruling out
* any difference in God assigned cheats or other time dependent effects it looks like heroes
* are making their decisions based on some hidden variables we don't have access to.

* Many combinations of traits assigned by the Chaos deity also show substantial differences
* (sometime better, sometimes worse), than when they are chosen. This suggests the provisional
* decision to go with Radiant Splendor + Enlightenment probably isn't optimal after all.

* The best set of traits chosen by the Chaos Deity for Heroes in our class is :
* Temporal Distortion + Anomalous Agility. (95 percent win rate based on 20 records)
* Barrier Conjuration + Mind Place (92.3 percent Win rate based on 13 records).
* Rapid XP Gain + Monstrous Regeneration (91.7 percent win rate based on 12 records)
* Barrier Conjuration + temporal Distortion (88 percent win rate based on 25 records)

* Temporal Distortion + Anomalous Agility does almost as well when these cheats are chosen as well.

*  On balance I think it would be a good idea to change my cheats to:
*  Temporal Distortion + Anomalous Agility.

D&D.Sci June 2022: A Goddess Tried To Reincarnate Me Into A Fantasy World, But I Insisted On Using Data Science To Select An Optimal Combination Of Cheat Skills!

For heros with our traits:

- Temporal Distortion and Rapid XP gain are the best 2 overall which seem to work well with anything.  The best single combination however is Enlightenment + Radiant Splendor (94 percent win rate). Shapeshifting is just terrible and should always be avoided. The others work well with some traits, but not with others;
The following combinations are very poor (< 1/2 win rate) and should not be given to other heroes like me:
- Anomalous Agility + Barrier Conjuration
- Anomalous Agility + Monstrous Regeneration
- Anomalous Agility + Uncanny Luck
- Barrier Conjuration + Monstrous Regeneration
- Barrier Conjuration + Uncanny Luck
- Enlightenment + Hyper Competent Dark Side
- Enlightenment + Monstrous Regeneration
- Hyper Competent dark Side + Mind Place
- Hyper Competent Dark Side + Radiant Splendor
- Hyper Competent Dark Side + Uncanny Luck
- Mind Place + Uncanny Luck
- Monstrous Regeneration + Radiant Splendor
- Monstrous Regeneration + Uncanny Luck
- Rapid XP Gain + Uncanny Luck
When looking at records for all trait a different picture emerges. Here MindPlace is the ability that is terrible, and shapeshifting does reasonably well with anything except MindPlace. The only terrible combos (< 1/2 chance of success ) which don't involve MindPlace are:
- Anomalous Agility + Barrier Conjuration
- Barrier Conjuration + Monstrous Regeneration
- Enlightenment + Hyper Competent Dark Side
- Hyper Compenetent Dark Side + Radiant Splendor
- Hyper competent Dark Side + Uncanny Luck
 Radiant Splendor and Enlightenment still does best overall though.
In general our traits seem to be somewhat below average, but Radiant Splendor + Enlightment still looks like a very strong combination. This combination was noticeably less successfull (6/12 times) for heros with our traits when the Chaos deity was involved. The sample size is small, and the effect doesn't show when all heroes are considered, so this might be a statistical fluctuation; however it may be an idea to avoid further dealing with this deity, just in case it is giving inferior versions of traits to heroes like me to spread chaos.

Provisional Decision: Go with Radiant Splendor + Enlightenment

D&D.Sci Divination: Nine Black Doves Evaluation & Ruleset

Thank you for posting this.

The need to join to other records was trivial for me.

I think the data model was too complex too fully decipher with a reasonable amount of effort, but this wasn't a problem as it wasn't necessary to get a decent answer (I might actually have got the optimal one if I hadn't blundered and missed that Italia suffered a famine in the previous year - though I was uncertain on a number of points and wasn't expecting to do as well as I did). In particular the wealth/population dependency completely passed me by. 

Overall in terms of difficulty it felt OK. 

D&D.Sci Divination: Nine Black Doves

Some omens/disasters are clearly correlated with what happens next year, though I couldn't find anything that stood out and made a given disaster nearly certain to happen this year. Some of the signs were also contradictory. I couldn't find any additional clear cut pattern by looking at previous years, though given that several disasters come in clumps I wouldn't be surprised if there was something to learn by looking for correlations > 1 year in the past.  I suspect a complicated algorithm could need to be used to pull everything together to produce a highly accurate prediction, however my relatively simple analysis suggests that the following may not be too bad:


Interventions I am very confident are optimal:
- Italia Famine Relief(10000Dn)
- Grecia Plague Prevention(10000Dn)

Interventions that look reasonably likely to be optimal:
- Hispania Famine relief(10000Dn)
- Italia Plague Prevention(10000Dn)

Interventions that look moderately useful, but I suspect aren't optimal:
- Grecia Fire Prevention(10000Dn)
- Hsipania Fire Prevention (10000Dn)

Duels & D.Sci March 2022: It's time for D-d-d-d-d-d-d-d-d-d-d-d-d-d-data!

There doesn't seem to be a killer card that dominates one or more of the others.

Having a balanced deck seems to be important, as the probability of winning  consistently declines as the number of distinct cards falls, and the maximum number of a single card rises.

The cards clearly aren't equivelant as some groups of cards do consistently better than others. 

I haven't been able to get a grip on what the rules might be, but peering through the fog suggests that the following combination won't be too bad:

 2 Alessin, Adamant Angel
 0 Bold Battalion
 1 Dreadwing, Darkfire Dragon
 2 Evil Emperor Eschanous, Empyreal envoy of entropic dead
 0 Gentle Guard
 1 Horrible Hooligan
 0 Kindly Knight
 2 Lilac Lotus
 1 Murderous Minotaur
 1 Patchy Pirate
 0 Swords of the Shadow
 2 Virtuous Vigilante

This is my provisional entry for both the main and PVP objectives.

D&D.SCP: Anomalous Acquisitions

Oops. It should be:





D&D.SCP: Anomalous Acquisitions




D&D.Sci Holiday Special: How the Grinch Pessimized Christmas

Min noise in 9 max is 32, with an average of 16.
Everyone with > 28 noise had a Trum-Troopa. All the really low instances of noise which involved Trum-Troops were wither with a boy paired with a Fum-Foozler or a girl pared with a Who-Whonker.

Girls tend to make much more noise with Fum-Foozler than boys.

There seems to be a slight bias to younger children producing less noise with Sloo-Slonker.

If a child likes/dislikes a Gah-Ginka one year it looks like it will also like/dislike it another year.

Blum-Blooper appears to be consistently unpopular with Fum-Foozler and normally unpopular with Who-Whonker

Which suggests.

Blum-Blooper: Ideally goes with Fum-Foozler but possibly also Who-Wonker.
Fum-Foozler: Only goes to boys
Gah-Ginka: Goes to children that haven't liked it in previous years.
Sloo-Slonker: Give to younger children
Trun-Troops: Go to either boys with a Fum-Foozler or girls with a Who-Whonker
Who-Whonker: From others

   Four Blum-Bloopers
   Four Fum-Foozlers
   Two Gah-Ginkas
   Three Sloo-Slonkers
   Three Trum-Troopas
   Four Who-Whonkers

Andy Sue Who 12 M  Gah-Ginka, Blum-Blooper
Betty Drew Who 11 F Trun-Troops, Who-Whonker
Sally Sue Who 11 F Trun-Troops, Who-Whonker
Phoebe Drew Who 9 F Trun-Troops, Who-Whonker
Freddie Lou Who 8 M Fum-Foozler, Blum-Blooper
Eddie Sue Who 8 M Gah-Ginka, Fum-Foozler
Cindy Drew Who 6 F Blum-Blooper, Who-Whonker
Mary Lou Who 6 F Sloo-Slonker, Blum-Blooper
Ollie Lou Who 5 M Fum-Foozler, Sloo-Slonker
Johnny Drew Who 4 M Fum-Foozler, Sloo-Slonker

D&D.Sci GURPS Dec 2021: Hunters of Monsters

My final advice is as follows:


 As there are only half points for duplicates focusing on one area is not a good idea. As hunts in locations where the Crow That Breaks The Sky are present it seems like a good idea to avoid Thunderwood Forest (excpet in Weeks 6). There's no information on how many points you get for different sized creatures which makes it difficult to factor that in. The number of datapoints for hunts in this period is very low so I will just crudely weight the hunts to the areas that look more promising.
Week 06: Thunderwood Peaks
Week 07: The Lordesteppes
Week 08: Miresmouth Forest
Week 09: Scorchsand Shores
Week 10: Devil's Maw
Week 11: The Lordesteppes
Week 12: Miresmouth Forest
Week 13: Scorchsand Shores
Week 14: The Lordesteppes
Week 15: Miresmouth Forest
Armour and Weapons:
Again there seems to be too litle data to draw any firm conclusion so just go with what looks to be
best on average for each region.
Thunderwood Peaks - Flaming Faulds armour and a Stormblade
The Lordesteppes - Electro chainmail Armour and a Badger Bludgeon.
Miresmouth Forest - Electro chainmail armour and a Winder's Rime
Scorchsand Shores _ Ground Greaves armour and a stormblade
Devil's Maw - Windy Wear armour  and a Winder's Rime

D&D.Sci GURPS Dec 2021: Hunters of Monsters

The known Genus in the monster file appear to be grouped. Together with hints about data being obscured by poor handwriting it suggests the unknown ones belong to the group they are in:
Toxicala = Beast
Earthmover = Beast
Raging Windrider = Avian
Flying Storm = Drake

Within a genus the data is consistent with being ordered by size  suggesting:
Rimewinder <= Scary
Dull Viper >= Rinewinder, <= Scary
Peaksnake  >= Dull Viper, <= Scary
Wrathrope >= Peaksnake, <= Scary
Earthmover >= medium, <= legendary
Macrophant >= Earthmover, <= legendary
Flamu >= small, <= large
Puffdrake <= small
Sandcrawler >= Medium
Thunderclap Wyvern >= Sandcrawler

Sightings by biologists:
All times/During weeks 6-15
Cassowarrior 46/13
Cold Parrot 47/4
Downhanger 98/22
Dull viper 65/16
Earthmover 71/15
Flamu 53/12
Flying Storm 45/18
Macrophant 35/5
Northern Badger 77/7
Peaksnake 41/3
Puffdrake 33/0
Rimewinder 25/6
Sandcrawler 53/7
Thunderclap Wyvern 31/14
Toxicala 19/0
Wrathrope 41/8

So the Toxicala is the most desirable specimen for the biologists, followed by the Rimewinder, Puffdrake, and Macrophant. The Toxicala  and Puffdrake have never been seen between weeks 6 and 15. and the Rimewinder is quite likely to be a small beast. The name of the Macrophant together with it's position in the list suggests it is probably a large beast, suggesting this is the most desirable one to find on balance. During this time of the year in the past it has only been seen in the The Lordesteppes, suggesting that is a good place to go. Hunts in this location also seem to be more successful on average than the average hunt. Posion Plate armour from the Poison element has been used on more than half of the succesfull Macrophant hunts, suggesting that is the best choice for them. A sword with the wind element is the most succcessful weapon.

For the locations the biologists look for specimens the following stand out:
They enver go to the Devils Maw between weeks 37 and 39 or between weeks 46 and 49
They never go to Miresmouth Forest in weeks 13 or weeks 33-45
They never go to Scorchsan between weeks 1 and 6 and between weeks 46 and 52
They never go to the Lordesteppes between weeks 20 and 32, and also in week 52
They never go to Thunderwood Peaks in weeks 7-19

Looking though the hunters logs hunts suggests:

Hunts in the gap periods in Devils Maw are either unsucessful or yield a Sliding Queen Shash (only in the first period) which has a scary size. Possibly this is only present during these times and the ancient biologists were
to scared to got there then? That monster has not been seen anywhere else or at any other times which is consistent with this.

Hunts in Miresmouth Forest between weeks 33-45 are unusually unsuccessful. Maybe the biologists are avoiding it because of poor pickings. Or more likely the Legendary Crow That Breaks The Sky frightened the biologists off, The hunters never caught one of these outside of this window which suggests the crows may only be present during this time? The times at which the crows have been caught in the Lordsteppes and Thunderwood Peaks also correspond to time when the biologists don't go there.. No crows were caught in Scorchan during the gap, however it they are migratory birds that are always present in one location then the gap would perfectly align with the time at which their location was not otherwise known, suggesting the cause of this gap is the same.

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