I was born an optimist.
So far in human history, optimists always win. It is so lucky being an optimist.
Optimists are extremely important in advancing the technology and the human society. Optimists have brought radical abundance that were unthinkable even 100 years ago.
On the other hand, there were always countless doomers and naysayers:
Technology takes our jobs, reduces our wages, increases inequality, threatens our health, ruins the environment, degrades our society, corrupts our children, impairs our humanity, threatens our future, and is ever on the verge of ruining everything.
None of them were right and they seem so laughable in the rearview mirror.
Every time people talked about the devastating impact of a new technology, I... (read 399 more words →)
Sadly, you might be wrong again.
I am thinking, maybe the reason you made the wrong bet back in 2016 was because you knew too little about the field rather than you naturally being too optimistic. Now in transformative, you are the expert and thus free of the rookie's optimism. But you corrected your optimism again and made a "pessimistic" future bet -- this could be an over correction.
Most importantly, betting against the best minds in one field is always a long shot. :D