Zachary's Shortform
Jun 25, 20242
Zachary
67
1
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Replying toPlaying in the Creek
Can you explain more about the job helping the bank "win zero sum games against people who didn't necessarily deserve to lose"? Doesn't match my model of how investment banks work
Replying toFertility Will Never Recover
Collins not Gladwell lmao
If you're trying to make the most of your abundant free time then learning Quenya is a mistake. Learning a language nobody speaks seriously is at best a way to signal status to a very specific group of people and at worst a party trick
Some ideas of ways to spend that time that would pay higher dividends over the course of the rest of your life:
- learn a musical instrument
- become skilled at a competitive game (mtg, poker, rocket league, chess, etc)
- practice yoga
- personally I've found practicing yoga to be the best thing I can do for making me feel good in my body on a daily basis, which I see as a prerequisite for
Replying toHousing Roundup #9: Restricting Supply
Hey Zvi. Love and appreciate your writing. I've been an avid reader since the covid posts. I know it's difficult since your posts are so long, but this one and others could use a proof-reading for typos. I regret that I didn't write down any particular instances, but there were a number in this post.
That sort of thing doesn't usually bother me, but your writing is precise and high-entropy to the point where a single mistaken word can make the thought much harder to digest. For example, in the sentence:
... (read more)If this changes the rule from ‘you can build a house but you owe us $23k’ to ‘you can build a house and
It's very possible that Murati's talk at Dartmouth was my source's source, i.e. the embedded video around 13:30. She doesn't say GPT-5 specifically but does sort of imply that by mentioning the jump from GPT-3 to GPT-4, then says "And then in the next couple of years we're looking at PhD-level intelligence for specific tasks...Yeah, a year and a half let's say"
I have moderately strong evidence that OpenAI has pushed back GPT-5 to late 2025 (not naming source for confidentiality reasons). Conditional on this being true:
- What do you think the most likely explanation is as to why it's being delayed?
- How would this affect your AI timelines?
- What impact would you expect this news to have on AI relevant stocks?
This is a special post for quick takes (aka "shortform"). Only the owner can create top-level comments.
Strong upvoted. This post (especially as it relates to ask/guess culture) puts into words what I've previously referred to vaguely as "spiritual differences". I'm hopeful that I can train myself to recognize mismatched stances and pivot instead of concluding that someone else and I have incompatible personalities
Replying toOpen & Welcome Thread – April 2023
The speed with which GPT-4, was hooked up to the internet via plugins has basically convinced me that boxing isn't a realistic strategy. The economic incentive to unbox an AI is massive. Combine that with the fact that an ASI would do everything it could to appear safe enough to be granted internet access, and I just don't see a world in which everyone cooperates to keep it boxed.
Are you able to strong man the argument in favor of AI being an existential risk to humanity?
it is truly terrible