Zian

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How can I protect my bank account from large, surprise withdrawals?

This type of bank account is sometimes called a "controlled disbursement account" (e.g. https://www.wellsfargo.com/com/treasury-management/payables/controlled-disbursement-account). It's often used by businesses. Other people have explained how to turn things into net 30 with a credit card.

Combined, you can maintain some control over the activity in your checking account.

Overconfidence is Deceit

Thanks for posting this article here. Sometimes it feels like I got into this rationality stuff too late or only after a lot of people scattered away.

(I hope no one minds that this comment doesn't talk about the article's contents.)

Your Cheerful Price

There's a cost to figuring out that someone is trustworthy.

You could think of it this way :

Cost of finding a friendly assisting intelligence + normal cost of a good or service >> cheerful price

(pun intended)

How do you optimize productivity with respect to your menstrual cycle?

Real DisabilityTM

That sounds like a really useful idea.

For example, perhaps it would help to quantify one's quality of life over a period to identify patterns.

And maybe there are certain metrics that should lead to certain actions (like the idea of a normal range in routine blood tests).

How would free prediction markets have altered the pandemic?

large, liquid, free prediction markets being made suddenly available to the public

I am going to be pessimistic and guess that very little would change because this scenario does not include any change to the type of people who take prediction markets seriously and we already have some prediction markets.

Specifically, I predict that if there were an absolutely perfect prediction market for "Vaccine X will be X% effective" and the resulting prediction (in January of 2020) was mostly 98 to 99, the FDA would not behave any differently from what we observed with Pfizer or Moderna.

Open & Welcome Thread - January 2021

Considering how much LW and the Sequences talk about doing Bayesian updates, I figured it's worth talking about a downside I am experiencing. I closely monitor Metaculus and adjust my vaccination expectations accordingly. I have certain events that are on hold until I get vaccinated. Therefore, the optimal strategy would seem to be:

  1. Look up a predicted vaccination date range (e.g. late April)
  2. Schedule the appointments for late April
  3. Go to step 1.

What I didn't expect was the level of effort required by step 2 after the first run through. It gets tiring to call people every few months and say something like "Oops, we have to reschedule again..."

(USA) N95 masks are available on Amazon

Effects of Sterilization With Hydrogen Peroxide and Chlorine Dioxide on the Filtration Efficiency of N95, KN95, and Surgical Face Masks (JAMA Netw Open. 2020 Jun; 3(6): e2012099.) says:

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention listed KN95 masks (the Chinese version of the N95) as suitable alternatives to N95s when N95s are not available. 

Figure 1 indicates that a KN95 mask has similar filtration efficiency as a N95 when new. However, it acts differently (larger variation) after H2O2 sterilization and becomes very inefficient after ClO2 sterilization.

What is going on in the world?

I'm don't think the universe is obliged to follow any "high level narratives". I'm afraid I don't understand how thinking of events in these terms is helpful.

How can I find trustworthy dietary advice?
Answer by ZianJan 17, 20211

UpToDate is a good starting point.

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