Zian

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Please don't forget to deal with boring risks while working on existential risks.

Drive carefully and purchase vehicles with acceptable levels of risk.

Even an IIHS "TOP SAFETY PICK+" vehicle may be unacceptable if you are unwilling to let your head "[strike] the window sill of the driver door hard" when another vehicle strikes you from the side. That vehicle's head injury score was 391 and a score of 250 roughly equates to a concussion. There are other vehicles that allow the passenger's head and the driver's head to make "no contact" with hard surfaces in that situation.

An article about an airplane crash reported an example of over-fitting caused by training in the airline industry. 

Pilots were trained in roughly the following order:

  1. How to recover from a stall in a small airplane by pushing down on the yoke.
  2. Later, they were trained in simulators for bigger planes and "the practical test standards ... called for the loss of altitude in a stall recovery to be less than 100 feet. ... More than a hundred feet loss of altitude and you fail."

And then an airplane crashed when the pilot flying pushed the wrong way on the yoke during a stall, possibly because #2 had trained the pilot's instincts to try to limit the loss of altitude.

If that was a contributing factor, then the crash is an example of a slightly misaligned intelligence.

It's not hard to imagine that when training #2 began, everyone assumed that the new training wouldn't cause the pilot to forget the basics from #1. Or, to use a closer-to-AI perspective, if an AGI seems to be doing the right thing every time, then giving it some extra training can be enough to make it do the wrong thing.

I assume that the pilot's self-perceived terminal values did not change before #2 and after #2. He probably didn't go from "I should avoid killing myself" to "Dying in a plane crash is good." So having a perfect understanding of what the AGI thinks it values might not suffice.

It seems that the broken hand example is similar to situations where we have a deep understanding of the mechanics of how something works. In those situations, it makes more sense to say "this leg is broken; it cannot do 99% of the normal activities of daily living." And the doctor can probably fix the leg with pins and a cast without much debate over exactly how disabled the patient is.

A large fraction of the ITAR list.

Some examples of dual-use items:

  • Rockets
  • Iron powder
  • Ship hulls
  • Airplanes
  • Helmets
  • Cordless telephones (digital spread spectrum)

Out of that list of examples, airplanes and ship hulls probably fit your requirements.

How about this instead?

//start quote

The statue made a rising whine as the lights began to pulse rhythmically. The legs stretched out, probing a bit in random directions for an instant before one found the surface of the floor and the rest immediately followed, each with its own sharp little click. When the machine appeared sure of its footing, it began to slowly push itself up while the weapon on its back glowed a dull red and swiveled around sharply. It was so beautiful! And a bit terrifying. I took a step back, and the statue seemed to notice! I can't say how I knew, but I was sure it looked right at me.

//end quote

There was a thudding sound. I turned around. I was alone now. The priest was being consumed by the statue.

Seconds later,  a tremendous crashing noise was heard as an appendage burst out into the open air.

And, the voice of John Henry boomed in my ears as he assured me that I had done the right thing. I had a bright future ahead as the first of a new group of clear-headed priests.

We were going to do so much together!

How confident are you that it is possible to differentiate something significant (vomiting) from something that should be delayed? Is it hard to differentiate between different types of cries?

Which spreadsheet did you look at in the HUD data? Did you use the contract price?

Many widely-known organizations in this field have publicly-identifiable persons and assets that can be pursued if they fail to follow through on their promises. For example, in the United States of America, the Internal Revenue Service requires some organizations to complete Form 990, which can be viewed by everyone.

Are there plans to provide a similar level of assurance to people who are interested in this cause?

Also, for people in the United States, consider running the hot water from a nearby faucet until the hot water is hot. Then, turn off the faucet and turn on the dishwasher.

As always, check your dishwasher's manual for specific recommendations.

"Learning to research out of desperate need is like learning to drive on the way to the hospital."

Fully agreed as to the greater point but the flip side is that in real life, if the need is desperate, then entire chunks of this article can be skipped.

For example, if aliens will murder you if you don't tell them the correct name of the " Tiffany" in the CGP Grey poem, then you can blurt out "Theofania" and collapse into a heap in bed. No need to write anything

Similarly, if you are bleeding profusely from a stab wound, then it is probably sufficient to find the nearest competent emergency room and skip the step of quizzing a librarian.

Finally, so as to avoid creating too many strawmen, if you have an acute disease, then finding a few very reliable summary articles and convincing a doctor to help you implement the steps may have excellent odds of curing the disease. For example, there are many protocols for diseases.

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