Would it be possible to set up tax deduction for Germany? I am considering donating and would be even more inclined to do that if a tax deduction was available; I may still donate even if that was not the case.
I got a Fatebook account at the beginning of 2024. After concluding the "Frictionless" section of this post, I felt encouraged to install the Firefox extension and make a prediction to share here.
Given that I haven't had time to read the full post in detail and that I feel that I want to get better at actively using predictions as a planning and calibration tool - and knowing that I may have time to dedicate to this activity within the next two weeks - I made the following, simple prediction.
⚖ Will I finish reading the post "Fluent, Cruxy Predictions" by Raemon within the next two weeks? (Nonmonotonica X: 65%)
Since I would like to take something concrete away from this post, I would want to find an area where setting up an action plan is relatively straightforward, so that I can focus on the prediction part. I already have few ideas, so I am quite confident that I will have found one by the time I will come back to this article:
⚖ Will I find a suitable area or goal where I can pair planning with prediction making using Fatebook and following Raemon's article? (Nonmonotonica X: 75%)
Thank you for taking the time to writing down this post.
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Are you deriving these two points only using the axioms provided in the "Setup" section, or are you assuming all four axioms stated afterward here?
The first paragraph of this article led me to believe that the piece is referring to an attitude that is typical of most European people. Yet, AC units or multiple fans are quite common in Southern European households, offices and shops, where temperatures are quite high during summer. Not only that, but there are cultural norms or preventive measures in place: for example, shops used to close (some still do) during the hottest hours of the day in Spain and Italy, and fresh water is freely and readily available at public fountains in many Italian cities.
I live in Germany, and here I get the feeling that "extremely hot summer days" simply weren't the norm, and now that summers are getting warmer everybody is a bit unprepared. But I don't get the feeling that AC units are taboo for everybody: surely there are people that have their motivations not to use an AC unit at all, but also people that would gladly take the chance to be able to work or simply rest in a cooler room and resort to AC if that was the only possible option.
Overall, I get the impression that this post was written with a very specific subset of German/European persons in mind, and it depicts something different from my experience.