I got a Fatebook account at the beginning of 2024. After concluding the "Frictionless" section of this post, I felt encouraged to install the Firefox extension and make a prediction to share here.
Given that I haven't had time to read the full post in detail and that I feel that I want to get better at actively using predictions as a planning and calibration tool - and knowing that I may have time to dedicate to this activity within the next two weeks - I made the following, simple prediction.
⚖ Will I finish reading the post "Fluent, Cruxy Predictions" by Raemon within the next two weeks? (Nonmonotonica X: 65%)
Since I would like to take something concrete away from this post, I would want to find an area where setting up an action plan is relatively straightforward, so that I can focus on the prediction part. I already have few ideas, so I am quite confident that I will have found one by the time I will come back to this article:
⚖ Will I find a suitable area or goal where I can pair planning with prediction making using Fatebook and following Raemon's article? (Nonmonotonica X: 75%)
Thank you for taking the time to writing down this post.
- .
- .
Are you deriving these two points only using the axioms provided in the "Setup" section, or are you assuming all four axioms stated afterward here?
Would it be possible to set up tax deduction for Germany? I am considering donating and would be even more inclined to do that if a tax deduction was available; I may still donate even if that was not the case.