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Bayesian update

Edited by Eliezer Yudkowsky last updated 23rd Feb 2016
Requires: Bayes' rule

A Bayesian update or belief revision is a change in probabilistic beliefs after gaining new knowledge. For example, after observing a patient's test result, we might revise our probability that a patient has a certain disease. If this belief revision obeys Bayes's Rule, then it is called Bayesian.

Bayesian belief updates have a number of other interesting properties, and exemplify many key principles of clear reasoning or rationality. Mapping Bayes's Rule onto real-life problems of encountering new evidence allows us to reproduce many intuitive features that have been suggested for "how to revise beliefs in the face of new evidence".

  • (Extra)ordinary claims require (extra)ordinary evidence.
  • The scientific virtues of falsifiability, advance prediction, boldness, precision, and falsificationism can be seen in a Bayesian light.
Parents:
Bayesian reasoning
Children:
Strength of Bayesian evidence
Path: Insights from Bayesian updating
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