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Local Validity as a Key to Sanity and Civilization

16d
12 min read
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40

Security Mindset and the Logistic Success Curve

5mo
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45

Security Mindset and Ordinary Paranoia

5mo
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21

Hero Licensing

5mo
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76

Against Shooting Yourself in the Foot

5mo
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2

Status Regulation and Anxious Underconfidence

5mo
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9

Against Modest Epistemology

5mo
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48

Blind Empiricism

5mo
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16

Living in an Inadequate World

5mo
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48

Moloch's Toolbox (2/2)

6mo
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50

Recent Comments

There will be a single very cold day occasionally regardless of whether global warming is true or false. Anyone who knows the phrase "modus tollens" ought to know that. That said, if two unenlightened ones are arguing back and forth in all sincerity by telling each other about the hot versus cold da...(read more)

The vision for Arbital would have provided incentives to write content, but those features were not implemented before the project ran out of time. I did not feel that at any point the versions of Arbital that were in fact implemented were at a state where I predicted they'd attract lots of users, ...(read more)

I designed a solution from the start, I'm not stupid. It didn't get implemented in time.

Unless I'm missing something, the trouble with this is that, absent a leverage penalty, all of the reasons you've listed for not having a muggable decision algorithm... drumroll... center on the real world, which, absent a leverage penalty, is vastly outweighed by tiny probabilities of googolplexes ...(read more)

Zvi's probably right.

Sure. Measure a human's input and output. Play back the recording. Or did you mean across all possible cases? In the latter case see http://lesswrong.com/lw/pa/gazp_vs_glut/

[Ed Fredkin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_Fredkin) has since sent me a personal email:

> By the way, the story about the two pictures of a field, with and without army tanks in the picture, comes from me. I attended a meeting in Los Angeles, about half a century ago where someone gave a pa...(read more)