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Well-calibrated probabilities

Written by Eliezer Yudkowsky last updated 19th Dec 2015

A system of assignments is "well-calibrated" if things to which it assigns 70% probability, happen around 70% of the time. This is the goal to which aspire - not to perfectly predict everything, but to be no more or less certain than our information warrants.

Parents:
probability
Probability theory
bounded rationalists
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