I agree that one person isn't very much evidence, but in general, the fact that there are many talented young chess players all up and down the distribution of chess ability, does seem like good evidence that children can become the intellectual peers of adults if they are put into a position to spend lots of time doing so.
For example, if you took the student population of a magnet school and put it up against the population of some random Google department, and gave them all three months to prepare for a chess tournament, I wouldn't consider the magnet school to be underdogs.
Great stuff, I was quite surprised that current models can solve this now. I predicted they would not.
I appreciate your urge to put the edit at the top but I think it's better to move it to the bottom, so it doesn't spoil people trying to guess whether the models can solve it.
I just skimmed your downvoted post and linked doc. (I agree that there was no way I would have clicked through to the doc outside the context of this question.)
The post read like a big series of platitudes, or applause lights. The claims were too generic to be interesting to me. I agree with some, I don't agree with others, but either way it wasn't giving me anything I couldn't generate myself.
The linked doc actually started out strong. You say that you have personally experienced how your own behavior and thinking change when you are materially deprived, and that you actually tested different kinds of deprivations and rewards on yourself over time, and observed patterns. That's very interesting! I don't know anything about that. I want to hear what you experienced and think about whether it has anything to do with my life and what I can see. I would upvote a post about that.
I think you're writing these things to try to pitch your project, but people on LW mostly aren't sitting around wanting to get pitched on projects. They want to read intellectually stimulating new ideas. And it's not a convincing pitch either unless you show people you have the goods.
I don't have anything special to say about this, but this direction excites me, so I am leaving a comment. Thanks for running it and writing up these thought-provoking ideas.
1Looks like LLM content.
There's another blogger, Nathan Tankus, who is also reporting accounts directly from his sources within the BFS. He wears his bias on his sleeve and goes wild with the hyperbole, but he is a prolific public intellectual of some sort so he may be accurately reporting the basic facts. He also did an interview on Odd Lots but it didn't really have anything new.
Correct me if I'm wrong but this looks substantially LLM-written.
I would be surprised if it were ethically important for you to donate that much. LW has made a pretty big difference to my life (e.g. my career, marriage, and a big chunk of my bank account are causally downstream of LW existing) and I estimated that there are probably something like $100m dollars worth of people for whom it was similarly impactful as me, and then a long tail of more people for whom it was somewhat less impactful, so I owed on the order of 1% of my net worth, such that if everyone like me who saw this fundraiser did the same then it would have enough money to thrive.
So unless LW was really important to you or unless you are sure that you will be a millionaire in the future and you are just donating in advance, I don't think you owe $1000. But if you want to donate it, then do.
Why is it cheaper for individuals to install some amount of cheap solar power for themselves than for the grid to install it and then deliver it to them, with economies of scale in the construction and maintenance? Transmission cost?