Update: DeepSeek confirmed working w PLA to avoid export controls.
https://x.com/andrewcurran_/status/1937141798893457470
Pretty sure the double -17 downvotes for trying to hold him accountable (to the question of whether or not he has updated) is proof of my original conjecture that this community has problems with epistemic humility.
Rationality is about logic, not tone or hurt feelings.
I thought the point of rationality was not to let our human emotions get in the way of truth.
I guess “racing” is bearing a lot of weight in your description.
Because (in part due to American worries about existential AI from folks on this message board), by some measures China is already “winning” the race.
So no it doesn’t have to be a dramatic centralized investment. There is a race, ongoing, and due to their commitment to open source, they may be winning.
again, it’s like our obsession with semantics are blinding us from the truth. Whether or not China has a massive centralized strategy, they have obviously caught up.
Whether or not you admit the behavior to your definition of “race” they have caught up.
Which would make me think you and Gwen would update, from prior views that there weren’t able to catch up (bc there was no evidence they were actively “racing”).
https://x.com/natfriedman/status/1928092126614597686
FYI this was used yesterday, in this post.
https://www.aipanic.news/p/the-doomers-dilemma
maybe we can ask @gwern.
Gwern, at what point would you say you were 'wrong' and how would that make you 'update'?
what line would you agree on today @garrison ? At what point would you actually 'update'?
So far, am seeing a lot of people contesting the 'object' and not a lot of people updating. Which is kinda my point. Concordance with the group consensus seems to have become a higher priority than rationalism on this forum.
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