Whoa, hardcore. Nice work. And thanks!
True! Now we know. The thing about hospitals is they have things you didn't know to have.
This is different from concentrators I discuss?
A manager of mine of, speaking about Silicon Valley start-up ecosystem, advised me that it was a small world and I should relate to anyone I meet/deal with as someone who'd be my friend for ten years. I don't know whether all her friendships were genuine, but the spirit of the advice was helpful.
Curated. For at least the last year or two, I've noticed myself often assessing an idea to be "memetically fit", I think typically to remind myself or others that its popularity is not necessarily good evidence for its correctness. Something feels important here, though I'm confused about how to go about this kind of thinking. I feel some heuristic of "engage with arguments at the object level", but also, I don't know.
The post talks about reducing dissonance within the predictive world model. It seems though dissonance is not between predictions, but between a prediction and a desire. "Being the hero of the story" and "on the right side of history" are things one wants to be true. Something something descriptive vs normative.
For myself, I wonder whether having very high p(doom) is the comfortable belief. It has a number of advantages (1) further updates towards bad outcomes don't hurt that much because things are already really bad / overdetermined, (2) while it's still good for me to try, in a sense I'm fighting for virtue/dignity and it's not like my failure to be good enough is the difference between the cosmos succeed and failing, and that's kind of a relief. I'm not sure.
I wonder how much of the value here is retained if cut the focus on memetics and just analyze through lens of motivated cognition. Not all of it, but seemingly some.
and would appreciate guidance about norms re: how many questions are appropriate per comment, whether there are better venues for specific sorts of questions, etc.
If you still have such questions, feel free to ask and I, one of the other site mods, or someone else will answer! Though just seeing what other people do is a pretty good guide.
Please don't throw your mind away is a relevant and good post. Not quite about decision-making entirely, but I recently wrote A Slow Guide to Confronting Doom and accompanying A collection of approaches to confronting doom, and my thoughts on them.
My guiding question is "how do I want to have lived in the final years where humans could shape the universe?" It's far from zero enjoying life but probably more 1:3 ratio.
Getting concrete on the practical level, my financial planning horizon is ten years. No 401k, and I'm happy with loans with much longer payback times, e.g. my solar panel loan is 25 years which is great, my home equity line of credit is interest-only payments for ten years. Mostly I know I can use money now. Still, I care about maintaining some capital because possibly human labor becomes worth nothing and capital is all that matters. I'm not happy about having a lot of wealth in my house because I really don't know what happens to house prices in the next decade. In contrast, I expect stocks to rise in expectation so long as society is vaguely functional.
- Some racetracks have more "run-off": area on the sides of the track where you can go off without hitting anything. For example, Thunderhill is in a large field essentially, when you go off, you're just in a field. Not zero risk (could still roll). But I've gone off dozens of time and it's ok.
- Other race tracks are much less forgiving, e.g. Sonoma Raceway has a lot of concrete.
- Risk of critical injury is pretty low with modern safety equipment. You can damage your car and cost you thousands of dollars, but serious injury and deaths are rare.
- You can go over the limit slightly and have your tires lose traction for a bit, slide a bit, notice this, and correct. This is essential skill.
- When aiming to get faster, advice is to very slowly increase. E.g. the first time you go through the turn is at 80mph, the next time 81mph, see what happens. Don't jump up to 85mph. So when you go over, you only go over a bit.
Thanks for the detailed comment!
I'm not completely happy with how the emphasis came across. (Inkhaven has me pushing these out a little faster than is comfortable.)
To clarify and situate my feelings relative to your post (cheers, just read it). It would feel crazy to me to think that RL-learning stops at adulthood, as evidenced from the fact that adults can learn entirely new skills, the brain can regain functionality after strokes, people can unlearn phobias, etc.
Still, sure feels like a relatively large amount of learning happens in childhood. Perhaps because one is starting from a ~blank slate / uninitialized values? That learning can be overwritten but typically isn't because it takes the right circumstances. And while parents don't necessarily lock in everything forever, they do have a lot of influence do the control of childhood environment / how much they control the rewards. The child's mind generalizes correctly or not from the parents to others.
That seems right to me, that's the intuition I have and wish I could convey better. In earlier posts I'm trying to build an intuition pump from how walking and talking have low-level motions that we don't think about or describe. I'm listing higher-level stuff in part because i don't have a vocabulary for the lower-level stuff.
Cheers for your relevant writings, I'll read them.
I'm very curious about which things fall into the "then-get-stuck" bucket and why. Are you confident there isn't a range of lower-level drives and innate reactions that get fixed similar to accents[1]?
Amusing to me: while I never had a strong Australian accent to begin and even as a kid some thought I sounded American, I've really lost since I moved to the US a decade ago at age 25 to point that few people can guess where I'm from.