This is a introductory event for those who like to bet and for those who are interested in prediction markets or using betting as an aid to become better at forecasting the future.
It's a continuation of an earlier event, where we discussed Philip Tetlock's work on how to make good forecasts and then talked about (and made) various bets on the future.
At this event we'll probably talk a bit about the wisdom (and madness) of crowds and if that wisdom could be tapped into using markets. (And when one should be distrustful.) We'll probably also discuss one kind of betting systems used for prediction markets - binary option - and then use it for events where several people have different probabilities of something happening or not. For instance: "Is there going to be a cease-fire agreement between Russia and Ukraine in 2023?"
And then, we'll bet on it!
We'll probably both have an English speaking group and a Swedish speaking group for the event.
The main event starts at 19:00, but you are welcome to drop in at 18:30!
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This is a introductory event for those who like to bet and for those who are interested in prediction markets or using betting as an aid to become better at forecasting the future.
It's a continuation of an earlier event, where we discussed Philip Tetlock's work on how to make good forecasts and then talked about (and made) various bets on the future.
At this event we'll probably talk a bit about the wisdom (and madness) of crowds and if that wisdom could be tapped into using markets. (And when one should be distrustful.) We'll probably also discuss one kind of betting systems used for prediction markets - binary option - and then use it for events where several people have different probabilities of something happening or not. For instance: "Is there going to be a cease-fire agreement between Russia and Ukraine in 2023?"
And then, we'll bet on it!
We'll probably both have an English speaking group and a Swedish speaking group for the event.
The main event starts at 19:00, but you are welcome to drop in at 18:30!