Superforecasting 101

by KytheNo comments


This Tuesday marks the anniversary of the fall of the Berlin wall, possibly the most unexpected political event in modern history. We will celebrate this by learning to forecast the unexpected events of the future. The time has for a crash course in forecasting.

The plan: We'll have a list of questions assembled from various sources. (It can also be instructive to make predictions about your personal life - I can't come up with good questions about your personal life, but bringing a few of your own might be interesting). We'll go through them twice - the first time, by making off-the-cuff predictions without much thought.

The second time is more careful. There's a lot that goes into accurate forecasting, but most of it can be summed up fairly quickly in the ten commandments of superforecasting. We'll take the time to read through them, then go back through our predictions more carefully and try to apply the principles and improve them.

Hopefully, in a few months we'll be able to rate how well we did. (I'll keep an open spreadsheet for the event for anyone willing to register their predictions).

=== WHEN+WHERE === 7:00pm Tuesday, November 9th  (doors open 6:45pm) The Solarium (Join the mailing list at and say you came from LessWrong to access the post with the address)

(Disclaimer: One of the commandments of superforecasting is to spend time researching details and to update frequently. We can't do that within the timeframe, so please don't expect to actually outperform the GJP consensus here).

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