Prediction markets are like stock markets, but for beliefs about future events. They've been championed by Scott Alexander, Robin Hanson, and Eliezer Yudkowsky and are a repeating topic of Astral Codex Ten. Increasingly they're a tool available to all of us for evaluating the world and what might happen.

Today we're going to have a short speech based on Scott Alexander's Prediction Market FAQ about how they work and what the available market tools are, then break into open discussion. I'll have a paper-powered prediction market for use of people who want to get the hang of how they work with a simple version- my favourite use of the paper prediction market is a game called "Two Truths and a Prediction Market." If you've a mind to talk politics, we'll have examples of some well traded prediction markets on the 2024 election.