ExMateriae, a pro forecaster on Metaculus and #1 in both the baseline accuracy and commenting Metaculus leaderboards in 2025, will take one forecasting question and walk through his entire reasoning process step by step.

It's a rare chance to see how a pro forecaster actually does it.

Google Calendar

For more context on the group, see the original post.

If you want to see what other events we do, you can join us on discord