May 8th is Smallpox Eradication Day. It marks the day the WHO declared smallpox officially eradicated in 1980. To celebrate, we're doing a meetup about smallpox eradication, and other diseases that are currently near eradication.

Readings

1. OWID's history of smallpox eradication
2. Interview with D. A. Henderson, who headed the effort to eradicate smallpox
3. Science article about the polio eradication campaign faltering in the final stage
4. Nature article about the near eradication of guinea worm infection based on community efforts
5. Givewell's reasoning for not including disease eradication campigns in their priority programs

Discussion

1. The readings describe three eradication campaigns at different stages: smallpox (done), guinea worm (almost), polio (stalled). What features of the disease or the campaign best predict whether eradication succeeds?
2. Henderson describes how four prior eradication efforts had failed (hookworm, yellow fever, yaws, malaria) before smallpox was attempted, and that this led many in global health to abandon targeted eradication entirely. Given that track record, was it rational to attempt smallpox eradication? Would an EA-style campaign have identified smallpox eradication as a worthy cause area in 1967?
3. How likely do we think polio eradication is at this point? At what point does the rational move become just accepting elimination instead of aiming for eradication?
4. Guinea worm is being eradicated purely through behavioral change, surveillance, and community volunteers. What does this tell us about the relative importance of technology vs. institutions vs. political conditions?
5. GiveWell looked at polio and guinea worm eradication and declined to recommend funding them, arguing eradication campaigns are too complex for their cost-effectiveness methodology, even though smallpox eradication may be the most cost-effective health intervention in history. Is this a reasonable acknowledgment of epistemic limits, or a failure of the framework?

Location

Meet at Holland Village MRT Exit B (below ground part) at 3 pm. We will wait for everyone to gather for 5-10 mins, and then head over to my nearby apartment. If you've been here before, feel free to come directly to the apartment (though you may need to wait to be let in).

Some snacks will be provided. There are many restaurants and a hawker centre nearby, if you want to buy your own food.