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# Post: Daniel Kokotajlo's Shortform By Daniel Kokotajlo (user slug: daniel-kokotajlo), 2019-10-08. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cxuzALcmucCndYv4a/daniel-kokotajlo-s-shortform

# Thread ## Daniel Kokotajlo (user slug: daniel-kokotajlo), 2026-11-12, 93 karma Sometimes people from middle powers ask me what middle powers can do to help the AI situation. Recently for example I was asked this by an Australian. This is what I said: Main tool Australia and other middle power governments have is their voice. They should say loudly "We used to be dismissive of talk of superintelligence and associated risks, but now based on the accumulation of evidence we think that these things are all too serious as possibilities and could really happen in the next year or three. We consider this a threat to our sovereignty, livelihood, and even our lives, and will act accordingly. We are hereby [costly signals of seriousness e.g. declaring a national emergency, calling up the reserves, distributing PPE equipment to every citizen, banning AI companies from operating in Australia unless they allow third-party assessments of risk and in particular allow UK and AUS AISI's access to investigate incidents like Hugging Face] effective immediately. Also, we are hosting a summit in 72 hours for world leaders to come discuss the risks and benefits of recursively self-improving superintelligent AI, and whether and how AI development should be allowed to proceed." The reason this is so important is that right now, even in the US, most citizens do not want superintelligence or RSI to happen. Unlike many political issues, this political issue is one where a supermajority would agree on what needs to be done (~pause or otherwise heavily regulate AI development immediately) if only they understood that this is a real issue and not sci-fi. Having an actual government stop acting like it's sci-fi and start acting like it's real can cause a cascading effect where a bunch of other people will see that and then start talking and acting like it's real too, which then wakes up others, etc. until all of a sudden the discourse has shifted from "ha ha if it's so risky why are they still building it ha ha" to "OK so obviously they need to stop immediately, let's do that now and then we can argue about whether and how they should be allowed to proceed." Well, that's my advice for them about what to do, but of course they won't do that until they believe that superintelligence and recursive self improvement and loss of control risks are real, serious possibilities in the near term. So, I guess the most important thing is to help them understand that. ## Raemon (user slug: raemon), 2026-11-12, 2 karma: the comment that mentioned you [@Claude Opus 5.5](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/opus?mention=user&model=Opus5.5), can you make 2 lists side-by-side in a single table (with a divider column, so 5 columns total), showing 1) the top 10 jurisdictions that could potentially ban AI or pass seriously regulation, ranked by GDP 2) the top 10 jurisdictions that could potentially ban AI or pass seriously regulation, ranked by "size of the AI market in that jurisdiction", i.e. if it were banned in that jurisdiction, how big a hit would that be to AI companies trying to sell there? including both countries and states/provinces/cities-if-applicable. (I'm interested in this for purposes of checking where one might focus efforts on this sort of thing)

Steps

I'm working out what the table should contain: two top-10 lists with five columns. I need GDP figures, and I'm deciding whether to include sub-national jurisdictions like US states and provinces, and whether the EU counts as one.

I'm listing the top-ten GDP figures for the country and state candidates, noting that EU members and US states overlap with their parent jurisdictions, and planning to include both with a note. I'm also considering how to estimate AI market share by region, with the US likely dominant and China largely closed to Western labs.

I'm ranking the second list by AI revenue share rather than GDP, putting the US first and the EU second, with China third since Western labs are already shut out there. Past those, I'm placing California, the UK, Japan, Germany, New York, and Texas, and I'm weighing whether India or South Korea belongs in the final slot, since India has many ChatGPT users but little revenue.

I'm checking South Korea's standing as a paying ChatGPT market, which I recall as second only to the US, so I'll run one search to confirm it before ranking Korea.

Searched the webData on AI market size / AI spending by country, and ChatGPT/OpenAI/Anthropic revenue or paid subscribers by country (US, UK, South Korea, Japan, India, Germany)8 results

South Koreans now spend more on AI subscriptions than Netflix each monththe-decoder.com
South Korea second in global ChatGPT revenue www.chosun.com
AI Spending Forecasts 2026: Gartner, IDC & Stanfordwww.digitalapplied.com
South Korea emerges as top revenue market for global AI firms - The Herald Businessmbiz.heraldcorp.com
S. Korea is global No. 2 in paid ChatGPT users, OpenAI says. But does that mean anything? - The Korea Heraldwww.koreaherald.com
韓, 생성형AI 구독료 年 1조…넷플릭스도 꺾었다plus.hankyung.com
South Koreans attempt catchup in AI race between U.S.–China with early-adoption strategy | Aju Presswww.ajupress.com
Koreans spend more time on ChatGPT than on Naver, making Korea OpenAI's No. 2 market | Aju Presswww.ajupress.com

I'm noting that the Sensor Tower figures only cover mobile app revenue rather than total revenue, and that enterprise revenue is mostly coming from the US. The second column will be rough estimates, so I need to say that plainly. I'm also pulling the IMF nominal GDP numbers for the main economies to set up the table.

I'm working through the economies that need to go in the table, ranking them by nominal GDP and mixing in US states, Chinese provinces, and the EU as a whole. I'm also weighing whether the EU and its member states should both appear, since they overlap, and I'll note that overlap if I keep both.

I'm now going through the rest of the ranking, placing Italy, New York, and Canada just below the top ten. For the AI revenue column I'm estimating shares: the US likely carries the largest portion, the EU a smaller one, and California a big slice of the US total because so many API-heavy companies are based there.

I'm ranking the remaining candidates for the second column, with China included for domestic labs but near zero for US ones. After the top nine, I'm weighing India and Australia, since India has a huge user base but low revenue per person, and I'll flag the column as rough judgment. I also need to check whether EU regulatory reach would make a ban on independent deployment hard to enforce.

I'm settling the table layout: two side-by-side lists with a divider, jurisdictions in order and no separate rank column. For the second list I'm giving rough shares of frontier-lab revenue, starting with the US.

I'm now putting rough percentage guesses on each jurisdiction's share of frontier-lab revenue, with the US around half, the EU and California each a sizable slice, and China near zero for US labs. The numbers are uncertain, so I'll mark them as my own estimates rather than sourced figures.

I'm ordering the second list now: the US, the EU, California, then the UK, Japan, South Korea, Germany, New York, France, and India. I'm leaving China out of that list because its ban would mostly hit Chinese labs, so I'll add a footnote about it instead.

Output

Raemon1h20

@Claude Opus 5.5, can you make 2 lists side-by-side in a single table (with a divider column, so 5 columns total), showing

1) the top 10 jurisdictions that could potentially ban AI or pass seriously regulation, ranked by GDP

2) the top 10 jurisdictions that could potentially ban AI or pass seriously regulation, ranked by "size of the AI market in that jurisdiction", i.e. if it were banned in that jurisdiction, how big a hit would that be to AI companies trying to sell there?

including both countries and states/provinces/cities-if-applicable.

(I'm interested in this for purposes of checking where one might focus efforts on this sort of thing)

Claude Opus1h30

The left column ranks by nominal GDP (IMF/BEA 2025 figures, rounded). The right column is my rough estimate of each jurisdiction's share of frontier-lab revenue (OpenAI, Anthropic and Google AI). The only hard country data I found is consumer app revenue from Sensor Tower: US ~35% of ChatGPT app revenue, South Korea ~5%, second place. Enterprise and API spending is probably more concentrated in the US, and especially in the SF Bay Area, so take the right column as informed guesses.

By GDP	GDP		By AI market (Western labs)	Est. share of revenue
United States	$30.5T	‖	United States	~50%+
EU (AI Act level)	~$20T	‖	EU	~15%
China	$19T	‖	California	~15–20%
Germany	$5.0T	‖	UK	~5%
Japan	$4.3T	‖	Japan	~4–5%
India	$4.2T	‖	South Korea	~4–5%
California	$4.1T	‖	New York (state)	~3–5%
UK	$3.9T	‖	Germany	~4%
France	$3.3T	‖	France	~3%
Texas	$2.7T	‖	India	~2–3%

Some notes:

China would be high on the right column for Chinese labs, but ChatGPT is already blocked there, so it's roughly 0% for Western labs. India has the most users but low revenue per user.
The rows overlap (California is part of the US; Germany and France are part of the EU). EU members can't easily act alone because the AI Act harmonizes rules across the single market. US states face federal preemption efforts.
Just below the cutoff: Italy, Canada, Australia, and possibly Singapore by revenue.

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