Is the "Astronomical Waste" paper an example of "Pascal's Mugging"? If not, how do you distinguish (setting aside the problem of how you justify the distinction)?
Exactly, I describe my current confusion in more detail in this thread, especially the comment here and here which led me to conclude this. Fairly long comments, but I wish someone would dissolve my confusion there. I really don't care if you downvote them to -10, but without some written feedback I can't tell what exactly is wrong, how I am confused.
Do you have a link to Robin's suggestion?
Can be found via the Wiki:
Robin Hanson has suggested penalizing the prior probability of hypotheses which argue that we are in a surprisingly unique position to affect large numbers of other people who cannot symmetrically affect us. Since only one in 3^^^^3 people can be in a unique position to ordain the existence of at least 3^^^^3 other people who are not symmetrically in such a situation themselves, the prior probability would be penalized by a factor on the same order as the utility.
I don't quite get it.
I'm going to be poking at this question from several angles-- I don't think I've got a complete and concise answer.
I think you've got a bad case of God's Eye Point of View-- thinking that the most rational and/or moral way to approach the universe is as though you don't exist.
The thing about GEPOV is that it isn't total nonsense. You can get more truth if you aren't territorial about what you already believe, but since you actually are part of the universe and you are your only point of view, trying to leave yourself out completely is its own flavor of fal...
So after reading SarahC's latest post I noticed that she's gotten a lot out of rationality.
More importantly, she got different things out of it than I have.
Off the top of my head, I've learned...
Where she got...
I've only recently making a habit out of trying new things, and that's been going really well for me. Is there other low hanging fruit that I'm missing?
What cool/important/useful things has rationality gotten you?