Hsu links a review paper70305-4/fulltext "'Reliability of genomic predictions for North American Holstein bulls', VanRaden et al 2009") on the topic which discusses the usefulness of genetic prediction using cheap small SNP chips and how well it fits the highly-polygenic non-fixed model (which would imply that there's still a very long way to go before gains from breeding disappear):
Marker effects for most other traits were evenly distributed across all chromosomes with only a few regions having larger effects, which may explain why the infinitesimal model and standard quantitative genetic theories have worked well. The distribution of marker effects indicates primarily polygenic rather than simple inheritance and suggests that the favorable alleles will not become homozygous quickly, and genetic variation will remain even after intense selection. Thus, dairy cattle breeders may expect genetic progress to continue for many generations.
Nonlinear and linear predictions were correlated by >0.99 for most traits. The nonlinear genomic model had little advantage in R2 over the linear model except for fat and protein percentages with increases of 8 and 7%, respectively (Table 2). Gains in R2 averaged 3% with simulated data (VanRaden, 2008) but generally were smaller with real data, which indicated that most traits are influenced by more loci than the 100 QTL used in simulation. The R2 improved when the prior assumption was that all markers have some effect rather than that most have no effect.
Thanks for the link.
If I understand correctly, the inheritability of a trait often increases with a decrease of environmental variability.
In this study they are comparing cattle raised in modern times in a developed country (the Netherlands, I think), hence the environment was likely about optimal, and unsurprising most of the observed phenotypic variation had a genetic origin.
Ethiopian subsistence farmers probably don't have access to cheap soy and corn and have their cows graze on marginal lands, therefore nutrient availability is likely the limiting f...
Vincent Müller and Nick Bostrom have just released a paper surveying the results of a poll of experts about future progress in artificial intelligence. The authors have also put up a companion site where visitors can take the poll and see the raw data. I just checked the site and so far only one individual has submitted a response. This provides an opportunity for testing the views of LW members against those of experts. So if you are willing to complete the questionnaire, please do so before reading the paper. (I have abstained from providing a link to the pdf to create a trivial inconvenience for those who cannot resist temptaion. Once you take the poll, you can easily find the paper by conducting a Google search with the keywords: bostrom muller future progress artificial intelligence.)