Trillions of dollars are flowing into AI, and there is almost nowhere to trade it.
There’s no exchange for hyperscalers to hedge their $100M training runs. No benchmark markets to bet on the speed of AI progress. No public markets on OpenAI despite them being worth more than Goldman Sachs.
The most important sector in the global economy has less financial infrastructure than soybeans. Until now.
Announcing MNX, the first exchange to allow trading across the entire AI value stack, from H100 rental prices to Nvidia shares.
In theory I suspect it just doesn't actually make sense to have prediction markets where people can bet anonymously. It decreases the transparentization benefits of having the prediction market by like 10x because insider voices will get lost in the crowd. It makes it impossible to protect ordinary traders from insider trading.
And this seems unsolvable. Even if you figure out how to do the dance where traders have the opportunity to respond to an insider bet before prices flip, any approach to deanonymization can be bypassed by insiders proxying their bets through loved ones. You'd also need an exhaustive map of trust relations, and I'm not sure that would even be sufficient.
I might start advocating person to person Wagers over Markets.
Though on an abstract level I'm inclined to think that increasing the intelligence of the AI market would be bad on net, what're the chances that, in the real world and in the current situation, increasing market intelligence would mainly just expedite the following events: