I really like Eliezer's response to John Baez's last question in Week 313 about environmentalism vs. AI risks. I think it satisfactorily deflects much of the concern that I had when I wrote The Importance of Self-Doubt.
Eliezer says
Anyway: In terms of expected utility maximization, even large probabilities of jumping the interval between a universe-history in which 95% of existing biological species survive Earth’s 21st century, versus a universe-history where 80% of species survive, are just about impossible to trade off against tiny probabilities of jumping the interval between interesting universe-histories, versus boring ones where intelligent life goes extinct, or the wrong sort of AI self-improves.
This is true as stated but ignores an important issue which is there is feedback between more mundane current events and the eventual potential extinction of the humane race. For example, the United States' involvement in Libya has a (small) influence on existential risk (I don't have an opinion as to what sort). Any impact on human society impact due to global warming has some influence on existential risk.
Eliezer's points about comparative advantage and of existential risk in principle dominating all other considerations are valid, important, and well-made, but passing from principle to practice is very murky in the complex human world that we live in.
Baez replies with "Ably argued!" and presumably returns to his daily pursuits.
Please don't assume that this interview with Yudkowsky, or indeed any of the interviews I'm carrying out on This Week's Finds, are having no effect on my activity. Last summer I decided to quit my "daily pursuits" (n-category theory, quantum gravity and the like), and I began interviewing people to help figure out my new life. I interviewed Yudkowsky last fall, and it helped me decide that I should not be doing "environmentalism" in the customary sense. It only makes sense for me to be doing something new and different. But since I've spent 40 years getting good at math, it should involve math.
If you look at what I've been doing since then, you'll see that it's new and different, and it involves math. If you're curious about what it actually is, or whether it's something worth doing, please ask over at week313. I'm actually a bit disappointed at how little discussion of these issues has occurred so far in that conversation.
John Baez's This Week's Finds (Week 311) [Part 1; added for convenience following Nancy Lebovitz's comment]
John Baez's This Week's Finds (Week 312)
John Baez's This Week's Finds (Week 313)
I really like Eliezer's response to John Baez's last question in Week 313 about environmentalism vs. AI risks. I think it satisfactorily deflects much of the concern that I had when I wrote The Importance of Self-Doubt.
Eliezer says
This is true as stated but ignores an important issue which is there is feedback between more mundane current events and the eventual potential extinction of the humane race. For example, the United States' involvement in Libya has a (small) influence on existential risk (I don't have an opinion as to what sort). Any impact on human society impact due to global warming has some influence on existential risk.
Eliezer's points about comparative advantage and of existential risk in principle dominating all other considerations are valid, important, and well-made, but passing from principle to practice is very murky in the complex human world that we live in.
Note also the points that I make in Friendly AI Research and Taskification.