More predictions

by rockthecasbah1 min read2nd Jan 2021No comments

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Covid-19World Modeling
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Covid:

  1. Will a rapid at home test become available to me during the crisis?

Will I be able to buy a rapid at home test for Covid-19. Must be taken and processed at home. Must be available while Covid deaths per day are above 400 (can't miss the pandemic)

The FDA dragged its feet on rapid/at-home testing for the first 10 months of the pandemic. It has finally approved a test (although it requires a perscription). The manufacturer plans to ship 100,000 a day during January, so supply will be low. But since we're not vaccinating the vulnerable the Covid death rate should stay high into February. Therefore I expect at least one Ellume test will be available to me.

Pr(70%)

  1. Will the US move to first-doses-first vaccination.

Will more than half of the first 25 million vaccinations in the US have the second dose delayed to two months of more.

Recently the UK changed policy to FDF, delaying the second dose to three months to vaccinate twice as many people in the first round. The decision was criticized but the British gov held their grounds (parliaments are better). However in the US epidemiologists and the CDC have criticized FDF and indicated they prefer second doses first vaccination. Fauci publicly stated opposition to the FDF policy.

This debate closely reproduces the old masks debate. The current US medical elite has a strict epistemology that requires RCTs and disregards inductive reasoning. In the fast-changing crisis time is short, so they presume in favor of inaction. In crises, good policies (like masks) can have overwhelmingly positive cost-benefits which are obvious inductively, but they get opposed in favor of inaction.

In the mask battle, inductive reasoning won. But Fauci and the CDC seem determined to enact second doses first. They are also facing a crisis of resistance to vaccination, which will distract from the dosing debate. Therefore I do not expect FDF to win in the US.

Pr(25%)

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