I just realized that Paul Christiano and Dario Amodei both probably have signed non-disclosure + non-disparagement contracts since they both left OpenAI.

That impacts how I'd interpret Paul's (and Dario's) claims and opinions (or the lack thereof), that relates to OpenAI or alignment proposals entangled with what OpenAI is doing. If Paul has systematically silenced himself, and a large amount of OpenPhil and SFF money has been mis-allocated because of systematically skewed beliefs that these organizations have had due to Paul's opinions or lack thereof, well. I don't think this is the case though -- I expect Paul, Dario, and Holden all seem to have converged on similar beliefs (whether they track reality or not) and have taken actions consistent with those beliefs.