Once robots can do physical jobs, how quickly could they become a significant part of the work force?
Here's a couple of fermi estimates, showing (among other things) that converting car factories might be able to produce 1 billion robots per year in under 5 years.
Nothing too new here if you've been following Carl Shulman for years, but I thought it could be useful to have a reference article. Please let me know about corrections or other ways to improve the estimates.
Here’s a nice video of a teleoperated robot vacuuming, making coffee, cleaning a table, emptying the dishwasher, washing & drying & folding & hanging laundry, making a bed, etc. They also have a video where it cooks a meal. Pretty impressive! It’s surprising how much you can do without sensitive fingers!
Their website lists a bill of materials for the teleoperated robot of ≈$30K, or ≈$20K if hypothetically there were an AGI teleoperating it (because you wouldn’t need the teleoperation UI parts, or on-board laptop). It’s a one-off made by students.
Once robots can do physical jobs, how quickly could they become a significant part of the work force?
Here's a couple of fermi estimates, showing (among other things) that converting car factories might be able to produce 1 billion robots per year in under 5 years.
Nothing too new here if you've been following Carl Shulman for years, but I thought it could be useful to have a reference article. Please let me know about corrections or other ways to improve the estimates.