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[ Question ]

What are some concrete problems about logical counterfactuals?

by Chris_Leong
16th Dec 2018
1 min read
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Counterfactuals
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What are some concrete problems about logical counterfactuals?
13jessicata
2Chris_Leong
2jessicata
1avturchin
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jessicata

Dec 16, 2018

130
  • Issues with the solution you mentioned
  • Troll bridge
  • Counterfactual mugging
  • Agent simulates predictor
  • Coordination games (I discussed these in this post)
  • Game theory and bargaining in general
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[-]Chris_Leong7y20

So most of the problems seem to be related to making UDT work with logical uncertainty?

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2jessicata7y
Some of them specifically require updateless reasoning, some don't or might not. All of them involve logical uncertainty.

avturchin

Dec 16, 2018

10

I encountered something like the 5-and-10 problem in the art market. If I like a picture of the artist A, and I know that I have a good taste, it is an evidence that artists A is good, so I should buy it. The more good art I found, the better is my taste.

Now repeat it 100 times and you end buying pile of garbage.

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Logical counterfactuals are key to Functional Decision Theory and last I heard still an unsolved problem. Unfortunately, I am still rather confused about what exactly we are trying to solve. The only concrete problem I know of in this space is the 5-and-10 problem. But as far as I know, this is solved by writing programs that immediately cause a paradox if they ever discover their output. So presumably there are some unsolved concrete problems that relate to logical counterfactuals?

Edit: I should mention my post on the Cooperation Game as an example. Plus the further work section of this slideshow.