avturchin

avturchin's Comments

Confirmation Bias As Misfire Of Normal Bayesian Reasoning

I often found myself in a situation when I overupdated on the evidence. For example, if market fails 3 per cent, I used to start to think that economic collapse is soon.

Overupdating on random evidence is also a source of some conspiracy theories. A plate number of a car on my street is the same as my birthday? They must be watching me!

The protection trick here is "natural scepticism": just not update if you want to update your believes. But in this case the prior system becomes too rigid.

Will nCoV survivors suffer lasting disability at a high rate?

I've seen the following quote:

"Moreover, reportedly the virus does serious damage to people’s lower respiratory systems — supposedly it can take “…at least six months for patients to recover heart and lung function.” If this becomes endemic across the world, even developed nation’s healthcare systems will struggle to provide care." https://www.cassandracapital.net/post/coronavirus-the-status-of-the-outbreak-and-4-possible-scenarios"

What are the risks of having your genome publicly available?

One minor risk: someone will create a baby using your genom and theirs and you have to pay child support.

Matthew Barnett's Shortform

A person could be split on two parts: one that wants to die and other which to live. Then the first part is turned off.

The case for lifelogging as life extension

What you describe is a passive digital immortality, or just recording of everything. Active digital immortality is writing something like an autobiography and-or dairy.

I descrived different practical approaches here. For example, the best source of unique personal information is audio channel, and one could record almost everything he speaks by constantly running a recording app on his laptop or a phone. It will not look crazy for peers.

Towards deconfusing values

It looks like the idea of human values is very contradictional. May be we should dissolve it? What about "AI safety" without human values?

Rationalist prepper thread

I would use medical gloves, underwater glasses, two levels of masks.

Edited: in fact, I would not go.

Rationalist prepper thread

It is probably wrong to take median (size of pandemic), if we speak of the risk of events with heavy tails.

Rationalist prepper thread

I pick just recent numbers, but exponential two-day doubling trend in infections and deaths is visible in the wiki-table from 16 January, or for around 5-6 doublings. Total growth for 12 days is around 100 times.

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