The Case for Extreme Vaccine Effectiveness

I now have covid after being vaccinated 3 months ago by Russian Sputnik-V vaccine. For now, it is mild: one day of 38 C, 3 days of 37.5C, only upper level infection, no cough. I lost smell, but it is is slowly returning. Oxygen at my normal level. 

What if AGI is near?

Yes, it is a reversed doomsday argument: it is unlikely that the end is nigh.

On Falsifying the Simulation Hypothesis (or Embracing its Predictions)

I agree that simpler simulations are more probable. As a result the cheapest and one-observer-cenetered simulation are the most numerous. But cheapest simulation will have the highest probability of glitches. Thus the main observable property of  living in simulation is higher probability to observer miracles.

 Wrote about it here: "Simulation Typology and Termination Risks" and Glitch in the Matrix: Urban Legend or Evidence of the Simulation?

Could billions spacially disconnected "Boltzmann neurons" give rise to consciousness?

Here you have neurons and order of their connection. This order is a graph and could be described as one long number. Mind states appear as a brain moves from one state to another, and here it will be transition from one number to another.  

This is exactly what Muller wrote in his article, which you linked: you need just numbers and a law based on Kolmogorov's complexity which connects them  -  to create an illusion of stream of consciousness.  Neurons are not needed at all. 

Why Selective Breeding is a Bad Way to do Genetic Engineering

One don't need to limit breeding ability to get genetic selection: just move those who you not interesting on into outside world. For example, i want to breed dogs who are good to live in mountains. I put a group of dogs on a mountain. As generations pass, those dogs which are good in living in the mountain will remain there and even move higher, and those who are not good in it, will move to live in plains. Those who live in plains may even have higher number of children.

Grabby aliens and Zoo hypothesis

If we are inside the colonisation volume, its change will be isotropic and will not look strange for us. For example, if aliens completely eliminated stars of X class as they are the best source of energy, we will not observe it, as there will be no X stars in any direction. 

Russian x-risks newsletter winter 2020-2021: free vaccines for foreigners, bird flu outbreak, one more nuclear near-miss in the past and one now, new AGI institute.

Both answers are correct: manufacturing is slow and a lot of people are against vaccination. More about in this article in Russian. 

Population trust is low and many people deny vaccination. Only around 5 per cent of people in Moscow has been vaccinated, despite easy availability of vaccine for everybody in Moscow.  Also, there is a typical situation in Russia from Soviet times when Moscow is oversupplied and regions are undersupplied.  Ural region has run out of vaccine. 

In my circle, 80 per cent of people had covid, but only a few friends vaccinated (around 5-10 per cent based on the share of people who visited my last year wedding and later vaccinated). There are two explanation according to them: either they already had covid and has antibodies and don't see the reason to take risks of vaccination, or "they are too old" and afraid of side effects. Interestingly, Russian vaccine was initially approved only for people below 60, Also, unfortunately, Putin didn't take the shot and this didn't help the belief in vaccine.

Two more Russian vaccines are in the late stages of approval, and some people wait for them as they are based on more conventional technology: not viral vectors, but dead coronavirus. 

Bootstrapped Alignment

 as a weak alignment techniques we might use to bootstrap strong alignment.

Yes, it also reminded me Christiano approach of amplification and distillation.

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