I create two dimensional matrix of the most important characteristics which I hope will catch most variability and use it as x and y axis. For example, for AI risk can be number of AIs and AI's IQ (or time from now). It is Descartes method.
There are other tricks to collect more ideas for the list - reading literature, asking a friend, brain-shtroming, money prizes.
I created a more general map of methods of thinking but didn't finish yet.
Actually, anytime I encounter a complex problem, I do exactly this: I create a list of all possible ideas and – if I can – probabilities. It is time consuming brut-forcing. See examples:
The table of different sampling assumptions in anthropics
What AI Safety Researchers Have Written About the Nature of Human Values
[Paper]: Classification of global catastrophic risks connected with artificial intelligence
I am surprised that it is not a normal approach despite its truly Bayesian nature.
I don't understand your lol here - am I wrong? Is world wrong?
Request for help and also expose our AI future AI as potentially misaligned so it would have double down to pretend to be aligned.
We can not only warn them, but request help. In that case, their age is not a problem - but distance is.
Also expose our future AI as potentially misaligned, so it would have double down to pretend to be aligned.
Can we: create a full list or map of ideas and after that add probabilities to each one?
In my view: Qualia are a type of mathematical objects which depends only from themselves. This explains first two questions.
1 Only qualia exist which depends only from themselves.
2 Only consciousness content is real and the universe outside is just a way to describe how one qualia is connected with another (This view was suggested by Ernst Mach - I will make a post about soon).
Our warning message can be received in many points "simultaneously" - so they don't need to spend more time exchanging information across Andromeda galaxy and can start preparing locally.
I asked AI about it and it told me that large radiotelescope may suffice. However, the main uncertainty is receivers equipment. If they are on Proxima, they suspect that there is life near Sun, so constant observations are possible - but the size of receiver depends on Kardashev level of civilization.
Advance civilizations will have larger receiving dishes, may be the size of Dyson spheres - but such civilizations are farther (or they will be here).
Therefore, relation distanace/reciver-size is approximately constant.
Yes, but processing 3D and more is difficult and representing on paper also difficult. Therefore, several 2D slices of mental hyperspace can work.
You can have a look on last version but it is in Russian.