avturchin's Comments

Ubiquitous Far-Ultraviolet Light Could Control the Spread of Covid-19 and Other Pandemics

It looks like it can't go through water, so it can't reach virus in blood. However, it seems that visual light is beneficial for immunity, and during 1918 flu sun was used as one of the therapies

The attack rate estimation is more important than CFR

Yes, DP. Lower sensitive of PCR means a lot more of very mild or asymptomatic cases on DM, which have no other manifestations (or people on DP concealed their illnesses).

Taking Initial Viral Load Seriously

Any animal data on small viral loads effects?

Iceland's COVID-19 random sampling results: C19 similar to Influenza

Interestingly, there were explosions of H1N1 flu in 2009 on cruise ships, but no reports of death clasters on cruise ships. Thus covid is at least 10 times worse.

The case for C19 being widespread

Median age on DM is 62 (basically, 50 per cent above 62). Most of the deaths were in people above 70.

In 2017, about 16 percent of the American population was 65 years old or over.

So, any DM mortality should be divided on 3 to get US mortality, given medical care will be available. If it will not be available, almost all critical care patients will die.

45 passengers of DM who were critical is 1.2 per cent of all 3700 DM passengers (I take all passengers' number, not only infected ones, as it gives some estimation of the attack rate, that is the proportion of infected to those who escape infection, either via natural immunity or self-isolation. In US there will be many people, who will escape infection, via strong immunity, isolation, luck or very short asymptomatic illness - so short that it can't be find via PCR).

Divided on 3, it gives 0.4 per cent of US population will die, or around 1.3 million people.

Virus As A Power Optimisation Process: The Problem Of Next Wave

But pandemics was not explored as possible x-risks.

Virus As A Power Optimisation Process: The Problem Of Next Wave

The hospitals are already becoming main centers of virus infections and it is very dangerous from evolutionary perspective:

"Major hospitals such as Bergamo’s “are themselves becoming sources of [coronavirus] infection,” Cereda said, with Covid-19 patients indirectly transmitting infections to non-Covid-19 patients. Ambulances and infected personnel, especially those without symptoms, carry the contagion both to other patients and back into the community."

mRNA vaccine development for COVID-19

What is the correlation between types of vaccines and needed testing time, if any?

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