Note: I'm writing every day in November, see my blog for disclaimers.

It's well-known that the process for building AI GPUs has a hilariously fragile supply chain. There are multiple links in the chain that have no redundancy:

- Carl Zeiss (Germany): Supplies optics/lenses for EUV lithography machines
- ASML (Netherlands): Produces the EUV lithography machines that make the chips (using Carl Zeiss' optics)
- TSMC (Taiwan): Produces the chips (using ASML's machines)
- Nvidia (USA): Designs the AI chips

Critically, two of these companies are based in the EU, meaning that no matter how much e/acc twitter might laugh at the EU's GDP or bureaucracy, GPT-6 is not getting built without an implicit sign-off from the EU.

If the EU felt the need, they could halt export of EUV lithography machines out of ASML and also halt export of any EUV-empowering optics from Carl Zeiss. These companies are within the EU, the EU can do it.

This wouldn't halt AI chip production immediately, I'm sure the existing lithography machines would keep running for a while. I'm unsure of how much regular maintenance or repair parts these machines need from ASML employees, but I'm certain it's non-zero. So an EU-ban on exporting EUV lithography wouldn't halt chip production immediately, but it would inevitably bring it to a halt over time.

Banning the export of EUV machines would be a gutsy move, for sure, but it's entirely possible. And as tensions raise, it only become more likely.

Not many countries have the ability to hold the AI-capabilities world hostage, but through a bizarre twist of fate, the EU is able to do just that. I'm unsure of whether they're aware of the power they have, given how bloated their bureaucracy appears from the outside. But this is an ace-up-their-sleeves that 1. exists, 2. could be played, and 3. isn't going away any time soon.