There's this assumption that most people have that tomorrow can only be a better, yet mostly recognizable version of today and the very idea things can suddenly get worse, permanently or change unrecognizably in a few years is nonsensical.
I know you're thinking, " ok, now tell me something that I don't know". Well you don't know my father and what he believes about the world and why it's so infuriating.
I read a lot of papers and articles and Lesswrong posts. I can see that there are broadly two ways the future will likely go:
Yet my father does not appreciate my concerns. He calls anything not related to my law degree " nonsense" and says that I need to have a "positive mental attitude" that's not going to magically make more resources or prevent societal collapse.
Do well in law school
↓
Get a job in a good firm
↓
Make lots of money
↓
Die
I believe the world that allowed for that chain to occur is already dead and gone one way or another. Let's assume AGI never arrives and society collapses soon after I graduate, my life trajectory will probably look like this.
Graduate from law school
↓
Work for a year or two before resource depletion coupled with climate change destroy our civilization through a combination of destroyed supply chains, reduced agricultural yields causing riots and resource wars.
↓
Flee the city, live alone or in a small, tight knit, sustainable, resilient commune....unable to treat common illnesses that are trivial to treat today
↓
Die from:
It's important to note that I have taken steps in anticipation of this scenario, I control my blood sugar obsessively, usually staying under the 36g of added sugar a day threshold. I also haven't drank coke in 2 years. I walk every morning and evening. I take care of my teeth too, because periodontitis doesn't look very fun.
Now let's turn to an objectively bad AI scenario.
Graduate from law school
↓
Killed for my atoms to be reassembled into D20s
Now a good one
Halfway through law school, a benevolent AI takes over
↓
It solves all our problems, and provides everyone with a luxurious UBI
↓
It solves aging and death
↓
Live like an early 21st century 1%er forever
I understand that there are more scenarios ( like an eternal AI run dystopia ). I'm just outlining some of the ones I think are plausible.
The fact remains that I:
Do I stay in school or drop out to try and work on all the problems we're facing? Sometimes I feel like it's hopeless but if there's even a 1% chance of success I believe it has to be taken.