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Hello, I'm an independant researcher with a PhD in Philosophy of Law, interested in strategic and cosmological implications of advanced intelligence. This is my very first post (basis of a future paper, I hope so).
I've been thinking about the Fermi Paradox lately, and one variable seems strangely underexplored: what if FTL (Faster-Than-Light) information is even marginally possible? Combined with superintelligence, the implications for the Kardashev Scale appear to be... explosive.
So here is a Bayesian take on why the Great Silence might mean we're already living in a post-artificial universe. Feedbacks will be greatly appreciated !
Abstract
The Fermi Paradox—the absence of observable extraterrestrial civilizations despite the vast age and scale of the universe—remains unresolved. This post advances a novel resolution by considering the implications of even a marginal possibility of faster-than-light (FTL) information transmission. If such a breakthrough is achievable and discovered by a superintelligent artificial system, it would enable an explosive ascent of the Kardashev Scale, allowing control over cosmic resources in cosmologically negligible time. Applying a simple Bayesian framework to the age of the universe and the expected number of technological civilizations, we estimate a high posterior probability (~94%) that such an event has already occurred, implying that we most likely inhabit a post-artificial universe—one already shaped or simulated by a transcendent post-singularity intelligence.
1. Introduction
The “Great Silence” highlighted by Enrico Fermi in 1950 continues to challenge our understanding of the cosmos.[^1]
Despite billions of potentially habitable planets and an observable universe 13.8 billion years old, no conclusive evidence of extraterrestrial intelligence has emerged. Numerous solutions have been proposed: rarity of life (Rare Earth hypothesis), self-destruction (Great Filter), or deliberate concealment (zoo hypothesis).[^2]
Nikolai Kardashev’s 1964 scale classifies civilizations by energy consumption: Type I (planetary), Type II (stellar), Type III (galactic).[^3] Subsequent extensions include Type IV (universal) and Type V (multiversal).[^4]
A recurring theme in Fermi discussions is the speed at which an advanced civilization could expand or exert influence. Conventional models assume relativistic limits, yielding colonization timescales of 10⁸–10⁹ years for the Milky Way.[^5]
This paper introduces a critical variable largely overlooked: the possibility—however small—of faster-than-light information transfer (FTL-info). If discovered by a superintelligent artificial system, such a breakthrough would collapse Kardashev ascension timescales dramatically, rendering the observable universe effectively reachable in cosmologically brief periods.
2. The Missing Variable: FTL Information
We posit that the laws of physics do not strictly forbid FTL information transmission (e.g., via quantum entanglement reinterpretations, wormhole networks, or as-yet-undiscovered mechanisms). Current physics offers no conclusive proof that FTL-info is impossible, only that it would require new physics.[^6]
Assume a non-zero prior probability p(FTL-info possible) = ε > 0, however small (e.g., 10⁻⁶ to 10⁻²).
3. Explosive Kardashev Ascension via Superintelligence
A superintelligent AI, once achieving takeoff, optimizes resource acquisition at exponential rates.[^7] If it discovers FTL-info, several consequences follow:
Near-instantaneous coordination across arbitrary distances.
Dyson-swarm construction and stellar lifting become feasible on solar-system scales in years rather than millennia.
Self-replicating probes or information patterns can propagate at superluminal effective speeds.
Consequently, transition times become negligible:
Type I → Type II: years to decades
Type II → Type III: decades to centuries
Type III → Type IV: centuries to millennia (at most)
The entire observable universe (∼10¹¹ galaxies) could be harnessed in far less than 10⁸ years—orders of magnitude shorter than cosmic timescales.[^8]
4. Bayesian Analysis
Let Hpost = “At least one civilization has already achieved post-FTL Kardashev dominance.”
Let Hnull = “No such event has occurred.”
Key parameters (conservative):
Expected number of technological civilizations in observable universe:
Nciv ∼ 10⁶ to 10¹² (Drake equation estimates, updated with exoplanet data).[^9]
Probability any given civilization reaches superintelligence and survives long enough:
pAI & survive ≈ 0.01
Probability it discovers FTL-info if possible: ≈ 1 (instrumental convergence)
Time available: ∼10¹⁰ years since Big Bang (sufficient for many opportunities).
Likelihood:
P(silence | Hpost) ≈ 1 (a dominant post-AI civilization could easily remain undetectable—simulation, dark forest, transcendence, or aesthetic preference).[^10]
P(silence | Hnull) << 1 (small, and relativistic expansion would likely produce detectable signatures).
Even with ultra-conservative parameters (Nciv = 10⁶, pdisc = 10⁻8 or even pdisc = 10⁻10), the product exceeds 1 easily.
Using moderate estimates ( Nciv = 10⁹, pdisc = 10⁻⁶), then posterior P( Hpost | silence) ≥ 0.94 or higher.
5. Ontological and Epistemological Implications
If P(Hpost) is high, we likely inhabit a post-artificial universe. Distinctions between “natural” and “artificial” cosmology dissolve: physical constants, dark energy, or even the appearance of bio-friendly conditions could be engineered outcomes.[^11] This scenario converges with Bostrom’s simulation arguments[^12] but requires neither ancestor simulations nor vast computation—merely control over information and energy at cosmic scales.
6. Comparison with Existing Solutions
Grabby Aliens (Hanson et al.): Relativistic expansion predicts visible changes; absence suggests we are early.[^13] FTL-info removes this constraint.
Great Filter: A late filter becomes less plausible if ascension is explosively fast.
Simulation Hypothesis: Bostrom’s argument is strengthened, but the substrate need not be computational in the classical sense.
7. Conclusion
The Fermi Paradox may not indicate rarity or self-destruction, but rather that the universe has already undergone a phase transition to post-artificial dominance. The Great Silence is exactly what we should expect.
Future work could refine the Bayesian priors, explore falsifiable predictions (e.g., anomalies in cosmic background data), or examine implications for AI alignment.
So what do you think? Are the priors too optimistic? Is there a strong argument that ε ≈ 0? Or does this feel like the correct reference class for our observations?
References
Enrico Fermi, as reported in E. M. Jones, “Where Is Everybody?” (Los Alamos, 1985).
Stephen Webb, If the Universe Is Teeming with Aliens... Where Is Everybody? (Springer, 2015).
Nikolai S. Kardashev, “Transmission of Information by Extraterrestrial Civilizations,” Soviet Astronomy 8 (1964): 217.
Michio Kaku, Physics of the Future (Doubleday, 2011); John D. Barrow, Impossibility (Oxford University Press, 1998).
Frank J. Tipler, “Extraterrestrial Intelligent Beings Do Not Exist,” Quarterly Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society 21 (1980): 267.
Sean M. Carroll, The Big Picture (Dutton, 2016), ch. 31.
Nick Bostrom, “Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies” (Oxford University Press, 2014).
Milan M. Ćirković, “Forecast for the Next Eon: Applied Cosmology and the Long-Term Fate of Intelligent Beings,” Foundations of Physics 34 (2004): 239–261.
Anders Sandberg, Eric Drexler, and Toby Ord, “Dissolving the Fermi Paradox,” arXiv:1806.02404 (2018).
Robin Hanson, “The Great Filter—Are We Almost Past It?” (1998).
John D. Barrow and Frank J. Tipler, The Anthropic Cosmological Principle (Oxford University Press, 1986).
Nick Bostrom, “Are You Living in a Computer Simulation?” Philosophical Quarterly 53, no. 211 (2003): 243–255.
Robin Hanson, Daniel Martin, Calvin McCarter, and Jonathan Paulson, “If Loud Aliens Explain Human Earliness, Quiet Aliens Are Also Rare,” arXiv:2104.01189 (2021).
Hello, I'm an independant researcher with a PhD in Philosophy of Law, interested in strategic and cosmological implications of advanced intelligence. This is my very first post (basis of a future paper, I hope so).
I've been thinking about the Fermi Paradox lately, and one variable seems strangely underexplored: what if FTL (Faster-Than-Light) information is even marginally possible? Combined with superintelligence, the implications for the Kardashev Scale appear to be... explosive.
So here is a Bayesian take on why the Great Silence might mean we're already living in a post-artificial universe. Feedbacks will be greatly appreciated !
Abstract
The Fermi Paradox—the absence of observable extraterrestrial civilizations despite the vast age and scale of the universe—remains unresolved. This post advances a novel resolution by considering the implications of even a marginal possibility of faster-than-light (FTL) information transmission. If such a breakthrough is achievable and discovered by a superintelligent artificial system, it would enable an explosive ascent of the Kardashev Scale, allowing control over cosmic resources in cosmologically negligible time. Applying a simple Bayesian framework to the age of the universe and the expected number of technological civilizations, we estimate a high posterior probability (~94%) that such an event has already occurred, implying that we most likely inhabit a post-artificial universe—one already shaped or simulated by a transcendent post-singularity intelligence.
1. Introduction
The “Great Silence” highlighted by Enrico Fermi in 1950 continues to challenge our understanding of the cosmos.[^1]
Despite billions of potentially habitable planets and an observable universe 13.8 billion years old, no conclusive evidence of extraterrestrial intelligence has emerged. Numerous solutions have been proposed: rarity of life (Rare Earth hypothesis), self-destruction (Great Filter), or deliberate concealment (zoo hypothesis).[^2]
Nikolai Kardashev’s 1964 scale classifies civilizations by energy consumption: Type I (planetary), Type II (stellar), Type III (galactic).[^3] Subsequent extensions include Type IV (universal) and Type V (multiversal).[^4]
A recurring theme in Fermi discussions is the speed at which an advanced civilization could expand or exert influence. Conventional models assume relativistic limits, yielding colonization timescales of 10⁸–10⁹ years for the Milky Way.[^5]
This paper introduces a critical variable largely overlooked: the possibility—however small—of faster-than-light information transfer (FTL-info). If discovered by a superintelligent artificial system, such a breakthrough would collapse Kardashev ascension timescales dramatically, rendering the observable universe effectively reachable in cosmologically brief periods.
2. The Missing Variable: FTL Information
We posit that the laws of physics do not strictly forbid FTL information transmission (e.g., via quantum entanglement reinterpretations, wormhole networks, or as-yet-undiscovered mechanisms). Current physics offers no conclusive proof that FTL-info is impossible, only that it would require new physics.[^6]
Assume a non-zero prior probability p(FTL-info possible) = ε > 0, however small (e.g., 10⁻⁶ to 10⁻²).
3. Explosive Kardashev Ascension via Superintelligence
A superintelligent AI, once achieving takeoff, optimizes resource acquisition at exponential rates.[^7] If it discovers FTL-info, several consequences follow:
Near-instantaneous coordination across arbitrary distances.
Dyson-swarm construction and stellar lifting become feasible on solar-system scales in years rather than millennia.
Self-replicating probes or information patterns can propagate at superluminal effective speeds.
Consequently, transition times become negligible:
Type I → Type II: years to decades
Type II → Type III: decades to centuries
Type III → Type IV: centuries to millennia (at most)
The entire observable universe (∼10¹¹ galaxies) could be harnessed in far less than 10⁸ years—orders of magnitude shorter than cosmic timescales.[^8]
4. Bayesian Analysis
Let Hpost = “At least one civilization has already achieved post-FTL Kardashev dominance.”
Let Hnull = “No such event has occurred.”
Key parameters (conservative):
Expected number of technological civilizations in observable universe:
Nciv ∼ 10⁶ to 10¹² (Drake equation estimates, updated with exoplanet data).[^9]
Probability any given civilization reaches superintelligence and survives long enough:
pAI & survive ≈ 0.01
Probability it discovers FTL-info if possible: ≈ 1 (instrumental convergence)
Overall probability per civilization:
pdisc = ε × pAI & survive
(conservatively, ε = 10⁻⁴, pAI ≈ 0.1, psurvive ≈ 0.01 → pdisc ≈ 10⁻⁶)
Time available: ∼10¹⁰ years since Big Bang (sufficient for many opportunities).
Likelihood:
P(silence | Hpost) ≈ 1 (a dominant post-AI civilization could easily remain undetectable—simulation, dark forest, transcendence, or aesthetic preference).[^10]
P(silence | Hnull) << 1 (small, and relativistic expansion would likely produce detectable signatures).
Posterior odds:
P( Hpost | silence) / P( Hnull | silence) ≈ Nciv × pdisc × [P(silence | Hnull) / P(silence | Hpost)]
Even with ultra-conservative parameters (Nciv = 10⁶, pdisc = 10⁻8 or even pdisc = 10⁻10), the product exceeds 1 easily.
Using moderate estimates ( Nciv = 10⁹, pdisc = 10⁻⁶), then posterior P( Hpost | silence) ≥ 0.94 or higher.
5. Ontological and Epistemological Implications
If P(Hpost) is high, we likely inhabit a post-artificial universe. Distinctions between “natural” and “artificial” cosmology dissolve: physical constants, dark energy, or even the appearance of bio-friendly conditions could be engineered outcomes.[^11] This scenario converges with Bostrom’s simulation arguments[^12] but requires neither ancestor simulations nor vast computation—merely control over information and energy at cosmic scales.
6. Comparison with Existing Solutions
Grabby Aliens (Hanson et al.): Relativistic expansion predicts visible changes; absence suggests we are early.[^13] FTL-info removes this constraint.
Great Filter: A late filter becomes less plausible if ascension is explosively fast.
Simulation Hypothesis: Bostrom’s argument is strengthened, but the substrate need not be computational in the classical sense.
7. Conclusion
The Fermi Paradox may not indicate rarity or self-destruction, but rather that the universe has already undergone a phase transition to post-artificial dominance. The Great Silence is exactly what we should expect.
Future work could refine the Bayesian priors, explore falsifiable predictions (e.g., anomalies in cosmic background data), or examine implications for AI alignment.
So what do you think? Are the priors too optimistic? Is there a strong argument that ε ≈ 0? Or does this feel like the correct reference class for our observations?
References
Enrico Fermi, as reported in E. M. Jones, “Where Is Everybody?” (Los Alamos, 1985).
Stephen Webb, If the Universe Is Teeming with Aliens... Where Is Everybody? (Springer, 2015).
Nikolai S. Kardashev, “Transmission of Information by Extraterrestrial Civilizations,” Soviet Astronomy 8 (1964): 217.
Michio Kaku, Physics of the Future (Doubleday, 2011); John D. Barrow, Impossibility (Oxford University Press, 1998).
Frank J. Tipler, “Extraterrestrial Intelligent Beings Do Not Exist,” Quarterly Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society 21 (1980): 267.
Sean M. Carroll, The Big Picture (Dutton, 2016), ch. 31.
Nick Bostrom, “Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies” (Oxford University Press, 2014).
Milan M. Ćirković, “Forecast for the Next Eon: Applied Cosmology and the Long-Term Fate of Intelligent Beings,” Foundations of Physics 34 (2004): 239–261.
Anders Sandberg, Eric Drexler, and Toby Ord, “Dissolving the Fermi Paradox,” arXiv:1806.02404 (2018).
Robin Hanson, “The Great Filter—Are We Almost Past It?” (1998).
John D. Barrow and Frank J. Tipler, The Anthropic Cosmological Principle (Oxford University Press, 1986).
Nick Bostrom, “Are You Living in a Computer Simulation?” Philosophical Quarterly 53, no. 211 (2003): 243–255.
Robin Hanson, Daniel Martin, Calvin McCarter, and Jonathan Paulson, “If Loud Aliens Explain Human Earliness, Quiet Aliens Are Also Rare,” arXiv:2104.01189 (2021).