Hey rationality friends, I just made this FAQ for the credence calibration game. So if you have people you'd like to introduce to it --- for example, to get them used to thinking of belief strengths as probabilities --- now is a good time :)
Also, shameless promotion: please tweet/g+/like it; I want the world to be thinking in probabilities ASAP!
*Also*, please email me (critch@math.berkeley.edu) if you're good at making apps quickly and are interested in improving the game or making a variant of it; I'm swamped in job applications right now, but could easily have a Skype or phone conversation about our cache of ideas for improvements / variations (e.g. collecting user data on a server, more question types, a variant awarding gambles rather than deterministic scores, a variant with clickable emotion buttons for the user...).
Nice game, good to see someone making it easy to just practice being well calibrated.
My calibration started off wonky, (e.g. was wrong each of the first six times I claimed 70% certainty) but quickly improved. Unfortunately, it improved suspiciously well, I suspect I may have been assigning probabilities with my primary goal not being scoring points, but instead with trying to get that bar graph displayed every 5 or 10 questions to even out. It's a well designed game, but unfortunately at least for me the score wasn't the main motivator, which is a problem because the score is the quantity that increases by being helpfully well-calibrated. Anyone else have a similar experience?
I observed another curiosity. For much of my time playing the game I've got a larger fraction of 50%s right than of 60%s. I think what's going on is that the 50% cases are ones where I definitely have no idea of the answer and have to fall back on heuristics (have I heard of this person? does the name sound old or recent? etc.) -- and the heuristics work better than I can bring myself to admit they do :-).
Hey rationality friends, I just made this FAQ for the credence calibration game. So if you have people you'd like to introduce to it --- for example, to get them used to thinking of belief strengths as probabilities --- now is a good time :)