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Coordination Surveys: why we should survey to organize responsibilities, not just predictions
Academian4y60Review for 2019 Review

On reflection, I endorse the conclusion and arguments in this post. I also like that it's short and direct. Stylistically, it argues for a behavior change among LessWrong readers who sometimes make surveys, rather than being targeted at general LessWrong readers. In particular, the post doesn't spend much time or space building interest about surveys or taking a circumspect view of them. For this reason, I might suggest a change to the original post to add something to the top like "Target audience: LessWrong readers who often or occasionally make formal or informal surveys about the future of tech; Epistemic status: action-oriented; recommends behavior changes." It might be nice to have a longer version of the post that takes a more circumspect view of surveys and coordination surveys, that is more optimized for interestingness to general LessWrong readers, and that is less focused on recommending a change of behavior to a specific subset of readers. I wouldn't want this shorter more direct version to be fully replaced by the longer more broadly interesting version, though, because I'm still glad to have a short and sweet statement somewhere that just directly and publically explains the recommended behavior change.

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Extortion and trade negotiations
Academian9y50

I've been trying to get MIRI to switch to stop calling this blackmail (extortion for information) and start calling it extortion (because it's the definition of extortion). Can we use this opportunity to just make the switch?

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CFAR’s new focus, and AI Safety
Academian9y92

I support this, whole-heartedly :) CFAR has already created a great deal of value without focusing specifically on AI x-risk, and I think it's high time to start trading the breadth of perspective CFAR has gained from being fairly generalist for some more direct impact on saving the world.

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CFAR’s new focus, and AI Safety
Academian9y70

"Brier scoring" is not a very natural scoring rule (log scoring is better; Jonah and Eliezer already covered the main reasons, and it's what I used when designing the Credence Game for similar reasons). It also sets off a negative reaction in me when I see someone naming their world-changing strategy after it. It makes me think the people naming their strategy don't have enough mathematician friends to advise them otherwise... which, as evidenced by these comments, is not the case for CFAR ;) Possible re-naming options that contrast well with "signal boosting"

  • Score boosting
  • Signal filtering
  • Signal vetting
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Survey: What's the most negative*plausible cryonics-works story that you know?
Academian10y00

This is a cryonics-fails story, not a cryonics-works-and-is-bad story.

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Survey: What's the most negative*plausible cryonics-works story that you know?
Academian10y00

Seems not much worse than actual-death, given that in this scenario you could still choose to actually-die if you didn't like your post-cryonics life.

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Survey: What's the most negative*plausible cryonics-works story that you know?
Academian10y00

Seems not much worse than actual-death, given that in this scenario you (or the person who replaces you) could still choose to actually-die if you didn't like your post-cryonics life.

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Survey: What's the most negative*plausible cryonics-works story that you know?
Academian10y00

Seems not much worse than actual-death, given that in this scenario you could still choose to actually-die if you didn't like your post-cryonics life.

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Survey: What's the most negative*plausible cryonics-works story that you know?
Academian10y00

This is an example where cryonics fails, and so not the kind of example I'm looking for in this thread. Sorry if that wasn't clear from the OP! I'm leaving this comment to hopefully prevent more such examples from distracting potential posters.

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Survey: What's the most negative*plausible cryonics-works story that you know?
Academian10y00

Hmm, this seems like it's not a cryonics-works-for-you scenario, and I did mean to exclude this type of example, though maybe not super clearly:

OP: There's a separate question of whether the outcome is positive enough to be worth the money, which I'd rather discuss in a different thread.

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68Coordination Surveys: why we should survey to organize responsibilities, not just predictions
6y
12
191Unrolling social metacognition: Three levels of meta are not enough.
7y
44
9Survey: What's the most negative*plausible cryonics-works story that you know?
10y
75
38Deliberate Grad School
10y
155
110Willpower Depletion vs Willpower Distraction
11y
25
9CFAR is looking for a videographer for next Wednesday
12y
1
11Are coin flips quantum random to my conscious brain-parts?
12y
24
11[LINK] General-audience documentary on cosmology, anthropics, and superintelligence
12y
0
129The Relation Projection Fallacy and the purpose of life
13y
42
48Narrative, self-image, and self-communication
13y
51
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Rationality Diary
13y
(+5/-5)
Rationality Diary
13y
Rationality Diary
13y
(+256)
A Human's Guide To Words
15y
(+68)
Reflective Inconsistency
15y
(+119)
Reflective Inconsistency
15y
(+47)
Reflective Inconsistency
15y
(+959)
Rationality
15y
(+5/-8)
Rationality
15y
(+204)
Absent-Minded Driver
15y
(+32/-20)
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