In the racetrack of my life, I see horses of different breeds, trainers, and odds I could bet on: professional careers, relationships, personal projects, skills to develop. How can I bet better?

Some bets are very expensive, like my case bet with myself that I can be a genious of probabilistic reasoning here at LessWrong, haha. And others just seem weird, like when I betting with myself that eating a kilo of cheese would relax me and help me think better... (Well, it didn't. I could make other weirder bets, but that one seems less likely to be canceled.) The point is, I left two expectations to analyze, one very difficult and one very easy.

But what questions would help me get faster and more accurate information about my bets? 

What’s give me competitive advantage in be a genius LessWrong or a genius in eating cheese? 

What are the real odds in be a genius in LessWrong or or a genius eating cheese?

To know, I'd have to study the world what do the other peoples in your bets, so:

1. Well, the world has thousands of data points and people, and I'm just one. So, it seems I'm more likely to study myself first (how wonderful! I love myself).

   But, what questions help me study myself for betting?

   1. What's the benefit of that bet?
      1. How can I access information on thousands of horses to study them? I'd have to compare my horses with each other and see which ones would give me the most benefit. Look for evidence and assign weights based on the pure motivation and satisfaction those horses give me. And think about which horses give me the most motivation and satisfaction? Perhaps I should look at my past experiences and evaluate that well, or there are better way?
   2. What's the cost of the bet?
      1. Like the previous one, compare my horses, and how the cost isn't just money. So, should I compare my other bets with each other? Or not? And think about which of my horses are more expensive? Perhaps I should study my moments of lowest satisfaction and motivation to have a good parameter, or would there be a better way?

It seems that by analyzing my experiences, I could establish a benefit/cost Also, I could look for some generalizations in my horses, like intrinsic values, and define groups and types of horses for each bet: long distance? short distance? ...

Right now, I'd rather bet more on my horse, who wants to learn probability in LessWrong, than on my horse who thinks everything can be solved by eating cheese.