If one were to build an open platform to compete with news media rather than social or blogging media, they would need some sort of accountability/quality control mechanism to mirror the role of editorial review at prestigious news platforms.
The best tool for aggregating information that we have devised is markets. This is especially the case in open systems. The biggest risk to a well-functioning market is collusion. The second major problem with prediction markets for information is that bettors can become more concerned with predicting what people think the truth is rather than predicting the actual truth. Any mechanism that was designed to employ markets in the place of editorial review would need to guard against these failings. With this in mind I propose this system:
Would be interested to hear people’s thoughts on this system? One worry I have is that after some time people will be armed with prior probabilty data and will simply strategically pick the high probabilty outcome without doing any fact checking. This could be mitigated by minimising the amount of articles a fact checker gets, leading them to take the utmost care with the ones they are given.