I'm curious about people's current predictions of future:
- US confirmed case count
- US death count
As a schelling point, let's use May 1 (5/01/2020) as the prediction date, and worldometer as the data source.
Predictions should be in the form of a simple distribution such as a normal or lognormal.
My current predictions:
US cases: lognormal(13.0, 0.3) mode: 404k
US deaths: lognormal(10.0, 0.6) mode: 15.3k